Thanks to viperhut...

Thanks to viperhut (http://www.hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=712890#3122734) we have a more realistic idea of when the earliest production might occur.

So in 30 days time there will not be any production (HNC indicated earliest date of "second half of September"). If you imagine, as would normally be the case that commissioning problems are found, then production would be after this.

So I might go on holiday for 3 months, and after that check back to see how the CMR price is. My natural optimism (some may think I don't have any) is being pushed too far by expectations of immediate production after the construction of a $140M plant!

Given arguments concerning with worth of CMR from those within HC, and outside agencies look plausible, it doesn't look to me that there will be any change in sentiment until production starts, and there is some idea of costs and market prices.

Having been buoyed on by the unfailing HC enthusiasm (apart from some notable exceptions - it is good have differing views) for CMR, I feel like a need a rest from all this.

But don't give up hope - look at KCN (which has been waiting for leases for a very long time). I thought about selling today - but at last there is some hope!