FY19 Ebitda will be a story of two halves, ( maybe 35/65)  the...

FY19 Ebitda will be a story of two halves, ( maybe 35/65)  the first will have a substantial reduction in revenue due  to the lesser quantities of Lit DSO shipped from Wodgina until the ramp up in production of spod 6% concentrate that will start in the (now) 3rd QTR.    also, the significant lower quantities of iron ore shipped will effect first half income

there are many variables and moving parts in the MIN camp right now. 
  
1) how will MIN spread and calculate the CAPEX on the remaining 3x 250 Lit concentrating plants and other related expanding projected in Wodgina over this year.  how much Capex  per half ?

2) price of LIT and IRON ORE both seemingly going up recently. 

3) Big ticket is 49% or less of the sale of Wodgina. a sale for over $ 1 billion can do lots of things to a company.
a. can grow new revenue and diversify income. 
b. capital management. MIN can easily buy shares on market for the following few years on any share weakness. plus secure Div's.

4) if Lit prices  are in an uptrend and MIN can secure an offtake agreements for long term with a large battery Manufacturing comp, than maybe the sale of Wodgina is off the Agenda ( my personal preference) and future cash flow will put a rocket under the SP.

many more variables are in play from within this exceptionally Dynamic company.

on the other hand, with the forward looking pessimism on world growth including the fun of trade war usa/china, and the market ( big players) love and passion for shorting as a way to supplement income.  SP may be zigzagging the range until such time/ point were some big players abandon the narrow script of reduction in revenue for the first half 19.

OR 

there will be a sudden shift in price action that will  depend on MIN positive announcement as to the future of Wodgina Lit , whether a sale of a portion followed by cash injection, Or a" hard to refuse"  off take agreement of the Lit Concentrate in Wodgina with an overseas large battery comp.   
 due to the SP hanging and pinned on that one major event i am happy to just hold n accumulate on the dips. as it is just a matter of time before the announcement catch up with us all, and take us by surprise.