@Khao2) Didn't refer to any post in particular, and especially don't know which of your posts do you mean.
3) Loosely related: personally I benefit from 5 generic 'lithium demand/prices will boom' because 'X also wants to do Y' articles a day. We all know why we're here.
Not loosely related: Anything to do with CEZ, GEOMET, EMH, a SMS, a director, our technology, EU regulations, a direct competitor, etc. By all means, share it in a thread and make a point other than 'this is hot'.Fingers shares both kind, I'm grateful for the latter and less so for the former. In my post I expressed my view as 'input' and perhaps to vent years of frustration, I'm equally fine to continue ignoring the ramping posts; I just consider them contra productive for the reasons mentioned earlier.
4) My valuation(s) are higher. As you suggest, these have a lot of assumptions and these evolve over time. So long all of them are comfortably north from here, I don't pick a specific value.
6) Agree with the last sentence.
7) I agree, but only 2028+. Will re-evaluate in 2025 or so.
@FingersThe EU aims to have 30M EVs on its road by 2030: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-eu-transport/eu-to-target-30-million-electric-cars-by-2030-draft-idUSKBN28E2KM
The EU tends to be massively overambitious with its goals, but I'm optimistic regarding this goal. But it's in total, not annual. This is realistic considering the current ~16M cars produced in the EU (https://www.acea.be/statistics/article/eu-passenger-car-production) and the planned shift of ICE/EV ratio.
The EU will hardly both shift to EVs 100% and double the total volume simultaneously in less than 10 years, and mostly exporting them obviously, while the whole rest of the world sits idle. 30M electric CARS annually is not realistic for 2030; however, 30M electric VEHICLEs are. We do use a lot of e-bikes and mopeds. I would take that sentence with a grain of salt and let's wait for that BFS.
If we calculate with cars, the 300ktpa would still inflated in my opinion: as I recall, the battery of a Model S 85kWh contains about 7kg lithium metal (derived from Panasonic 18650), which is approx. 42kg Lithium Hydroxide equivalent. The typical European EV (e.g. e-Golf) has 35.8kWh, so with a 20% increase it's still just roughly half of the capacity of a Model S -> 150ktpa would be closer guesstimate. But as I explained above, we hardly talk about 30M electric cars a year.
Regarding Tesla: as tsibis pointed out, most likely everyone talks to Tesla. I would be outraged with the board if we weren't. That's not the same as having an offtake agreement announced with them this month or next.
Just a heads up: I only participate in sensible and respectful debate, and even then I might disappear as I'm busy (in which case I'm sorry).
(20min delay)