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1,201 Posts.
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23/03/12
16:23
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At 40mill prod, you get 2billion cash flow pre tax n depr.
Again we r using an IO price of $100 and costs avg $50/tonne.
tax incl MMRT CAPEX deductions of say avg 30% = cash flow post tax of $1.4bill
Say we have a share base of circa 1.3bill for the 40mtpa production ( now its circa 900mill shares from memory)
So Cash flow per share post tax = 1.4bill/1.3bill = $1.08 per share; Give PE 10, and you get $10.80 per share
Its a NO BRAINER, even if you increase the tax to 40%, you get an EPS or cash flow post tax per share of circa $1.00 or $10.00 a share
They have CASH thats growing and theyll issue maybe 200- 300mill shares .
40mtpa has a price tag of $10.00 a share, plus divvys, NO DEBT! all assummed at IOn price $100 long term.
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