NZD - Unemployment RateThe quantity of individuals without...

NZD - Unemployment Rate

The quantity of individuals without employment carries significance as an indicator of the broader economic well-being. This is due to its close correlation with consumer spending and the conditions within the labor market, even though it is typically categorized as a lagging indicator.

New Zealand's unemployment rate climbed to 3.6% in the second quarter of 2023, marking its highest point since the June quarter of 2021. This figure exceeded both the previous quarter's 3.4% and market expectations set at 3.5%. Simultaneously, the underutilization rate, a more comprehensive measure of unused labor capacity, increased to 9.3% from the first quarter's 9%. On another note, the labor force participation rate reached 72.4%, the highest level recorded since 1986, following the March quarter's 72%. Additionally, the employment rate stood at 69.8%, showing an increase from the upwardly revised 69.6% reported in the previous quarter.

TL;DR

	Aspect / Indicator	Q2 2023	Q1 2023 / Previous Quarter	Historical or Expected Benchmark
1	Unemployment Rate	3.6%	3.4%	Highest since June quarter 2021; Exceeded market expectations of 3.5%
2	Underutilization Rate	9.3%	9%	A measure of unused labor capacity
3	Labor Force Participation Rate	72.4%	72%	Highest since 1986
4	Employment Rate	69.8%	Upwardly revised to 69.6%	-

The forthcoming publication of the Unemployment Rate is scheduled for Tuesday, October 31, 2023, at9:45 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for New Zealand'sunemployment rate currently stands at 3.8%, reflecting a minor uptick.

Last time, the UnemploymentRate was announced on the 2^nd of August, 2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (NZDUSD M1) below:

1^stNovember 2023

Wednesday

On Wednesday, November 1^st,2023, a series of significant high-impact news announcements is scheduled inthe United States. These include the release of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change,ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, JOLTS Job Openings, Federal FundsRate, FOMC Statement, and FOMC Press Conference.

USD – ADPNon-Farm Employment Change

The generation of employment serves as a vital leading indicator for consumer spending, playing a pivotal role in driving overall economic activity.

In September, the ADP National Employment Report revealed that the private sector in the United States had added 89,000 jobs, while annual pay had witnessed a substantial year-over-year increase of 5.9%. This comprehensive report, developed in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab by the ADP Research Institute, provided a deep dive into the state of the private-sector labor market. Drawing from anonymized payroll data from over 25 million American employees, it offered an up-to-date, high-frequency perspective on employment trends in the U.S. This report included data on total private employment changes for the current month and weekly job data from the prior month, making it a valuable resource for analyzing labor market dynamics. Unique to ADP, its pay measure offered insights into the earnings of nearly 10 million employees over a 12-month period, providing an in-depth view of compensation trends.

TL;DR

	Aspect / Data Point	September / Report Details
1	Private Sector Job Addition	89,000 jobs added
2	Annual Pay Increase	Year-over-year increase of 5.9%
3	Collaboration with	Stanford Digital Economy Lab
4	Report Focus	State of the private-sector labor market
5	Data Coverage	Over 25 million American employees
6	Frequency & Update	Up-to-date, high-frequency perspective on U.S. employment trends
7	Included Data	Total private employment changes for current month. Weekly job data from prior month

The upcoming ADP Non-FarmEmployment Change report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November1, 2023, at 12:15 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for ADP Non-FarmEmployment Change suggests a decline from 89,000 to 65,000.

Last time, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Changewas announced on the 4^th of October, 2023. You may findthe market reactiongraph (GBPUSD M1) below:

USD – ISMManufacturing PMI

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a crucial economic indicator as it reflects how businesses respond rapidly to market conditions, offering valuable insights from the perspective of purchasing managers. Their assessments provide up-to-the-minute and pertinent information about a company’s outlook on the economy, making this announcement a vital gauge of economic health.

In September 2023, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States increased to 49 from the previous month's 47.6, surpassing market expectations of 47.8. This improvement marked the slowest contraction in the US manufacturing sector in ten months. Despite the ongoing slowdown, the data indicated nearly a year of consecutive monthly contractions in US factory activity, mainly influenced by the Federal Reserve's higher borrowing costs. New orders, while declining for the 13th consecutive month, did so at a notably slower rate due to changing supply chain dynamics, prompting customers to initiate more projects. As a result, production saw a significant rebound from August's stagnation, reaching its highest point since July 2022, aided by the rapid reduction of backlogs. Employment also displayed strength, bouncing back after three periods of contraction. Furthermore, the decline in prices persisted for the fifth consecutive month, raising optimism about improved profit margins for manufacturers.

TL;DR

	Aspect / Data Point	September 2023 Details and Context	Previous or Comparative Data
1	ISM Manufacturing PMI	49 (showing a slower contraction)	Previous month: 47.6; Market expectations: 47.8
2	Duration of Contraction	Nearly a year of consecutive monthly contractions in US factory activity	Influenced by the Federal Reserve's higher borrowing costs
3	New Orders	Declined for the 13th consecutive month but at a notably slower rate	Affected by changing supply chain dynamics
4	Production	Significant rebound, reaching its highest point since July 2022	August: Stagnation; Boosted by the reduction of backlogs
5	Employment	Displayed strength, bouncing back after three periods of contraction	-
6	Prices	Declined for the fifth consecutive month	Optimism for improved profit margins for manufacturers

The upcoming ISM ManufacturingPMI report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 1^st,2023, at 2:00 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for the ISM Manufacturing PMI suggests a slight uptick, moving from 49.0 to 49.5.

Last time, the ISM Manufacturing PMI wasannounced on the 2^nd of October, 2023. You may find the marketreactiongraph (EURUSD M1) below:

USD – JOLTS JobOpenings

Traders pay close attention to this data despite its delayed release because it can significantly influence the market. Job openings serve as a leading indicator of the overall employment landscape, highlighting the importance of this information for traders.

In August 2023, the number of job openings surged by 690,000 compared to the previous month, reaching 9.61 million. This figure significantly exceeded market expectations of 8.8 million and indicated a robust labor market, despite the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary policy tightening measures. Job openings saw notable increases in professional and business services (+509,000), finance and insurance (+96,000), state and local government education (+76,000), nondurable goods manufacturing (+59,000), and federal government (+31,000). Moreover, job openings increased across all regions, including the Northeast (+51,000), the South (+278,000), the Midwest (+238,000), and the West (+124,000).

TL;DR

	Aspect / Data Point	August 2023 Details & Numbers
1	Total Job Openings Increase	690,000 surge
2	Total Job Openings	9.61 million
3	Sector-wise Increases
4	- Professional & Business Services	+509,000
5	- Finance & Insurance	+96,000
6	- State & Local Government Education	+76,000
7	- Nondurable Goods Manufacturing	+59,000
8	- Federal Government	+31,000
9	Regional Increases
10	- Northeast	+51,000
11	- South	+278,000
12	- Midwest	+238,000
13	- West	+124,000

The upcoming JOLTS JobOpenings report is scheduled for release on Wednesday, November 1, 2023,at 2:00 PM GMT+1. This data release is closely monitored by analysts and traders for its insights into the state of the labor market, making it a significant event on the economic calendar.

The forecast for JOLTS job openings indicates a decline from 9.61 million to 9.2 million.

Last time, the JOLTS Job Openings wasannounced on the 3^rd of October, 2023. You may find the marketreactiongraph (GBPUSD M1) below:

USD -Federal Funds Rate

Short-term interest rates are the primary driver of currency valuation, with most other indicators serving as predictors of future rate changes for traders.

At the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Powell discussed the Fed's cautious approach, stating that policymakers had determined the extent of additional policy tightening and the duration of policy restrictions based on incoming data, evolving outlook, and risk assessment. Powell noted that the tight policy had a dampening effect on economic activity and inflation. While further evidence of sustained above-trend growth or labor market tightness no longer easing could jeopardize progress on inflation, potentially requiring additional tightening of monetary policy. Powell also acknowledged that inflation remained elevated, and achieving the 2% inflation goal might entail a period of below-trend growth and some labor market softening. In the September 2023 meeting, the Fed had maintained the federal funds rate target range at a 22-year high of 5.25%-5.5%

TL;DR

	Topic/Area	Fed Chair Powell's Remarks & Context
1	Fed's Approach	Cautious, based on: Incoming data - Evolving outlook - Risk assessment
2	Impact of Tight Policy	Dampening effect on economic activity and inflation
3	Potential Triggers for More Tightening	Sustained above-trend growth - Labor market tightness not easing
4	Inflation Status	Remains elevated
5	2% Inflation Goal	May require below-trend growth and some labor market softening

The upcoming Federal FundsRate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, November 1, 2023, at 6:00 PMGMT+1.

The forecast for the FederalFunds Rate remains unchanged at 5.5%, consistent with the previous figure.

Last time, the Federal Funds Rate wasannounced on the 21^st of September, 2023. You may find the marketreactiongraph (EURUSD M1) below:

FOMC -Statement

This is the key instrument through which the FOMC communicates with investors regarding monetary policy. It encompasses the results of their interest rate and policy measure votes, providing insights into the economic factors that shaped their decisions. Crucially, it delves into the economic forecast and provides indications about future policy decisions.

The FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday,November 1, 2023, at 6:00 PM GMT+1.

USD - FOMCPress Conference

This represents one of the key avenues employed by the Fed to convey monetary policy information to investors. It offers comprehensive insights into the determinants behind recent interest rate and policy choices, accompanied by analysis of economic conditions, including future growth prospects and inflation. Notably, it offers valuable hints about the trajectory of future monetary policy decisions.

The upcoming FOMCPress Conference is scheduled for Wednesday, November 1, 2023, at 6:30PM GMT+1.

2^ndNovember 2023

Thursday

On Thursday, November 2, 2023,the market anticipates significant high-impact announcements. Switzerland willrelease its Consumer Price Index month-on-month (CPI m/m), the UK is scheduledto make an announcement regarding its Official Bank Rate, and the US willunveil its unemployment claims data. These events are likely to have a notableimpact on market dynamics.

CHF - CPI m/m

Consumer prices play a significant role in the overall inflation, and inflation holds a crucial position in currency valuation as escalating prices prompt the central bank to increase interest rates in line with their mandate to control inflation.

On October 3, 2023, the Federal Statistical Office (FSO) reported that the consumer price index (CPI) experienced a 0.1% decrease in September 2023 compared to the preceding month, resulting in a reading of 106.3 points (December 2020 = 100). Inflation for the same month, when compared to the previous year, stood at +1.7%. This decline in CPI can be attributed to various factors, including reduced prices in the hotel and supplementary accommodation sectors, as well as decreases in airfare and prices for both domestic and international package holidays. On the other hand, prices for leisure-time courses, fuels, heating oil, clothing, and footwear saw increases during this period.

TL;DR

	Data Point/Aspect	September 2023 Details & Figures
1	Monthly Change in CPI	-0.1% (compared to preceding month)
2	CPI Reading	106.3 points (Base: December 2020 = 100)
3	Yearly Inflation	+1.7% (compared to the same month of the previous year)
4	Factors Leading to Decrease	Reduced prices in hotel and supplementary accommodation - Decrease in airfare - Decrease in domestic and international package holiday prices
5	Factors Leading to Increase	Prices for leisure-time courses - Fuel prices - Heating oil prices - Clothing and footwear prices

The upcoming CPI m/m is set for publication on Thursday, November 2, 2023, at 07:30 AM GMT+1.

The forecast for the CPI m/m suggests a rise from -0.1% to 0.2%.

Last time, the CPI m/m was announced onthe 3^rd of October, 2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (USDCHF M1) below:

GBP - BOEMonetary Policy Report

This information offers valuable insight into the bank's perspective on economic conditions and inflation, which are pivotal factors influencing future monetary policy decisions and interest rate determinations.

GBP - MPCOfficial Bank Rate Votes

The minutes of the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings include the individual interest rate votes of each MPC member from the latest meeting. This voting breakdown offers valuable insights into any shifts in members' positions regarding interest rates and provides an indication of how close the committee is to considering a rate change in the future.

GBP - OfficialBank Rate

Short-term interest rates are the primary determinant of currency valuation, with traders predominantly using other indicators to forecast future rate movements.

On September 21st, the Bank of England decided to maintain its policy interest rate at 5.25%, marking its highest level since 2008. This choice marked a departure from the bank's series of 515 basis points (bps) rate hikes over the past two years, reflecting a cautious approach influenced by recent data on inflation and the labor market. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favor of keeping rates unchanged, with four members advocating for a 0.25% increase. Despite ongoing pressure from rising oil prices, the central bank anticipates a decline in Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the near term, attributed to lower energy costs and ongoing decreases in food and core goods prices. Policymakers also reiterated their readiness to implement further tightening measures if deemed necessary.

TL;DR

	Aspect/Detail	Information & Figures
1	Current Policy Interest Rate	5.25% (highest since 2008)
2	Change from Previous Policy	No change (maintained rate)
3	Historical Context	515 bps rate hikes over past two years
4	Monetary Policy Committee Vote	5-4 in favor of no change (4 members advocated for 0.25% increase)
5	Inflation Factors	Pressure from rising oil prices - Anticipated CPI inflation decline due to lower energy costs and ongoing decreases in food and core goods prices

The upcoming Official Bank Rate announcement is scheduled for Thursday, November 2, 2023, at 12:00 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for the UK Official Bank Rate anticipates that the rate will remain unchanged at its previous level of 5.25%.

Last time, the Official Bank Rate wasannounced on the 21^st of September, 2023. You may find the marketreactiongraph (GBPUSD M1) below:

USD -Unemployment Claims

Although often seen as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed individuals carries substantial significance as it reflects the overall economic health. This is due to the strong correlation between labor market conditions and consumer spending. Additionally, unemployment plays a crucial role in the decisions made by those responsible for shaping the country's monetary policy.

In the week ending October 21, the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims increased by 10,000 to 210,000, with the previous week's figure revised upward by 2,000. The 4-week moving average rose to 207,500, an increase of 1,250, and the previous week's average was revised upward by 500. The insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%, with 1,790,000 people receiving insured unemployment benefits, an increase of 63,000 from the previous week's revised level, which was adjusted downward by 7,000. The 4-week moving average for insured unemployment increased by 31,250, with the previous week's average revised downward by 1,750.

TL;DR

	Detail/Category	Information & Figures
1	Initial Jobless Claims (Seasonally Adjusted)	Increase by 10,000 to 210,000- Previous week's figure revised upward by 2,000
2	4-Week Moving Average (Initial Claims)	Rose to 207,500 - Increase of 1,250 - Previous week's average revised upward by 500
3	Insured Unemployment Rate	Remained unchanged at 1.2%
4	Number of People Receiving Insured Unemployment Benefits	1,790,000 (an increase of 63,000) - Previous week's level revised downward by 7,000

The upcoming Unemployment Claims announcement is scheduled for Thursday, November 2, 2023, at 1:00 PM GMT+1.

The forecast for Unemployment Claims indicates a rise from 210,000 to 217,000.

Last time, the UnemploymentClaims was announced on the 26^th of October, 2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (USDJPY M1) below: