3rdNovember 2023FridayKeep an eye on your calendarsfor Friday,...

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    3rdNovember 2023

    Friday

    Keep an eye on your calendarsfor Friday, November 3, 2023, as it's slated to bring a series of high-impactannouncements from both Canada and the United States. Canada will reveal itscrucial Employment Change data along with the Unemployment Rate, shedding lighton the labor market's health. Meanwhile, south of the border, the US is set todisclose significant economic indicators, including Average Hourly Earningsm/m, Non-Farm Employment Change, the Unemployment Rate, and the ISM ServicesPurchasing Managers' Index (PMI). These releases are poised to draw attentionfrom markets and analysts, potentially influencing investment decisions andmarket trends. Stay tuned for the latest updates and analysis on these pivotalannouncements.

    CAD - Employment Change

    The creation of jobs serves as a vital leading indicator for consumer spending, which constitutes a significant portion of the overall economic activity.

    In September 2023, Canada's job market saw a substantial increase of 63.8K jobs, the highest surge in eight months and surpassing expectations of a 20K rise. Job gains were particularly notable in educational services (+66,000) and transportation & warehousing (+19,000). However, certain sectors such as finance, insurance, real estate, rental & leasing (-20,000), construction (-18,000), and information, culture & recreation (-12,000) experienced decreases in employment. Both part-time (+48,000) and full-time (+15,800) positions saw growth. Job expansion extended across six provinces, with Quebec (+39,000) and British Columbia (+26,000) leading the way, while Alberta (-38,000) and New Brunswick (-2,700) witnessed declines. The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.5%, unchanged for the third consecutive month, marking the highest level since January 2022.

    TL;DR

    Metric/Category

    Information & Figures

    1

    Total Job Increase

    +63.8K (highest in eight months)

    2

    Expectation

    +20K

    3

    Sectors with Notable Job Gains

    Educational services: +66,000 - Transportation & warehousing: +19,000

    4

    Sectors with Job Decreases

    Finance, insurance, real estate, rental & leasing: -20,000 - Construction: -18,000 - Information, culture & recreation: -12,000

    5

    Type of Job Positions

    Part-time: +48,000 - Full-time: +15,800

    6

    Provinces with Job Increases

    Quebec: +39,000 - British Columbia: +26,000

    7

    Provinces with Job Decreases

    Alberta: -38,000 - New Brunswick: -2,700


    The upcoming Employment Change data is scheduled for release on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 12:30 PM GMT+1.

    The forecast for Canadian Employment Change is reading a decreased 14.000.

    Last time, the EmploymentChange was announced on the 6th of October, 2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (GBPCAD M1) below:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690014-e3f2886ac834564a6801a7cc6ee9b368.jpg

    CAD -Unemployment Rate

    While typically considered a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate remains a crucial signal of overall economic well-being due to its strong correlation with consumer spending and labor-market conditions.

    In August 2023, Canada's unemployment rate remained stable at 5.5%, slightly below the estimated 5.6%. Although there was a slight increase in joblessness, it stayed lower than pre-pandemic levels. The economy added 63.8K jobs, significantly surpassing the expected 20K. Unemployment increased for core-aged men, while it remained stable for core-aged women. Youth unemployment has shown little change since May.

    The forthcoming UnemploymentRate data is set for release on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 12:30 PMGMT+1.

    The forecast for the CanadianUnemployment Rate is reading an unchanged5.5%.

    Last time, the UnemploymentChange was announced on the 6th of October, 2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (GBPCAD M1) below:


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690017-17262e26429c9a7e2d25be79e9fda69d.jpg



    USD - AverageHourly Earnings m/m

    This metric holds the distinction of being a precursor to consumer inflation. The pattern becomes evident as businesses increase labor expenses, with the resultant higher costs typically being transferred to consumers.

    In September 2023, average hourly earnings for all employees in the US private nonfarm payrolls increased by 7 cents, equivalent to a 0.2% rise, matching the previous month's pace and slightly below market expectations of a 0.3% increase. During the same period, average hourly earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees saw a 6-cent, or 0.2%, increase, reaching $29.06. Over the past year, average hourly earnings have grown by 4.2%, marking the slowest growth rate since June 2021 and falling below market projections of a 4.3% increase.

    TL;DR

    Metric/Category

    Information & Figures

    1

    Hourly Earnings Increase (All Employees)

    +$0.07 (0.2% rise, matches previous month)

    2

    Market Expectation (All Employees)

    0.3% increase

    3

    Hourly Earnings (Private-Sector Production & Nonsupervisory Employees)

    +$0.06 (0.2% increase, reached $29.06)

    4

    Yearly Earnings Growth Rate

    4.2% (slowest since June 2021)


    The upcoming Average HourlyEarnings m/m data is scheduled for release on Friday, November 3, 2023,at 12:30 PM GMT+1.

    The forecast for Average Hourly Earnings m/m suggests a marginal uptick from 0.2% to 0.3%.

    Last time, the Average Hourly Earnings m/m wasannounced on the 6th of October, 2023. You may find the marketreactiongraph (AUDUSD M1) below:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690026-4e6944084748d2cd18def2707ae37d8f.jpg

    USD - Non-Farm EmploymentChange

    Traders closely monitor Average Hourly Earnings month-on-month (m/m) as it serves as a key indicator of consumer inflation. When businesses raise labor costs, these additional expenses are frequently passed on to consumers, influencing overall inflation.

    In September 2023, US nonfarm payrolls surged by 336K, surpassing market expectations of 170K and marking the strongest job gain in eight months. This robust performance, well above the 70K-100K needed for population growth, indicates a resilient labor market despite the Federal Reserve's tightening measures. Job gains were notable in leisure and hospitality, government, health care, professional services, and social assistance sectors. Other major industries saw little change in employment levels.

    TL;DR

    Metric/Category

    Information & Figures

    1

    Nonfarm Payrolls Increase

    +336K (strongest in eight months)

    2

    Market Expectation

    +170K

    3

    Benchmark for Population Growth

    70K-100K

    4

    Key Sectors with Job Gains

    Leisure and Hospitality, Government, Health Care, Professional Services, Social Assistance

    5

    Industries with Minimal Change

    Other major industries


    The forthcoming Non-FarmEmployment Change data is scheduled for release on Friday, November 3,2023, at 12:30 PM GMT+1.

    The forecast for Non-Farm Payrolls suggests a decrease from 336,000 to 172,000.

    Last time, the Non-Farm Employment Change wasannounced on the 6th of October, 2023. You may find the marketreactiongraph (AUDUSD M1) below:


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690027-4e6944084748d2cd18def2707ae37d8f.jpg

    USD - UnemploymentRate

    Although it is frequently viewed as a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate retains its significance as a crucial measure of economic well-being. This is primarily due to its strong connection with consumer spending and its impact on decisions regarding monetary policy.

    In September 2023, the US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%, slightly exceeding expectations of 3.7%. Nonetheless, it indicated a historically tight labor market. This stability provides the Federal Reserve with flexibility to sustain higher borrowing costs for an extended duration. Furthermore, the U-6 unemployment rate, encompassing discouraged workers and part-timers, decreased to 7%, while the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.8%, marking the highest level since February 2020.

    TL;DR

    Metric/Category

    Information & Figures

    1

    Unemployment Rate

    3.8% (unchanged)

    2

    Market Expectation

    3.7%

    3

    U-6 Unemployment Rate

    7% (includes discouraged workers & part-timers)

    4

    Labor Force Participation Rate

    62.8% (highest since February 2020)


    The Unemployment Rate is scheduled for release on Friday,November 3, 2023, at 12:30 PM GMT+1.

    The forecast for the unemployment rate remains consistent at 3.8%, in line with the previous figure.

    Last time, the Unemployment Rate wasannounced on the 6th of October, 2023. You may find the marketreactiongraph (AUDUSD M1) below:

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690029-4e6944084748d2cd18def2707ae37d8f.jpg

    USD - ISMServices PMI

    ISM Services PMI serves as a leading gauge of economic well-being as businesses respond swiftly to market conditions. Purchasing managers, with their up-to-the-minute insights, offer one of the most relevant perspectives on a company's economic outlook.

    In September, the U.S. services sector maintained its expansion for the ninth consecutive month, registering a Services PMI reading of 53.6%, albeit slightly lower than August's 54.5%. Over the past 40 months, this sector has witnessed growth in 39 of them, with only a single contraction recorded in December 2022. Notable highlights include a rise in the Business Activity Index to 58.8% and the Supplier Deliveries Index entering expansion territory at 50.4%. The Prices Index held steady at 58.9%, and the Inventory Sentiment Index expanded for the fifth consecutive month. Thirteen industries reported growth, with Real Estate, Rental & Leasing leading the pack. Despite a slight moderation in the growth rate, the services sector maintains a positive outlook, albeit with some concerns regarding potential challenges on the horizon.

    TL;DR

    Metric/Category

    Information & Figures

    1

    Services PMI

    53.6% (Down from 54.5% in August)

    2

    Consecutive Months of Growth

    9 months

    3

    Total Growth in Past 40 Months

    39 months of growth, 1 month of contraction (December 2022)

    4

    Business Activity Index

    58.8%

    5

    Supplier Deliveries Index

    50.4% (Entered expansion)

    6

    Prices Index

    58.9% (Steady)

    7

    Inventory Sentiment Index

    Expanding for 5 consecutive months

    8

    Top Performing Industry

    Real Estate, Rental & Leasing


    The upcoming ISM Services PMI is scheduled for release on Friday, November 3, 2023, at 2:00 PM GMT+1.

    The forecast for the ISM Services PMI suggests a minor uptick from 53.6 to 53.7.

    Last time, the ISM ServicesPMI was announced on the 4th of October, 2023. You may find the market reactiongraph (EURUSD M1) below:


    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690031-cbeda3a770d36feda834cd3f4210a667.jpg

    Last edited by DanielLQDFX: 28/10/23
 
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