30thNovember 2023
Thursday
On Thursday, November 30th,2023, significant economic data is poised to emerge from key global economies.China will unveil its Manufacturing PMI, Canada is scheduled to disclose itsGDP m/m figures, and the United States will release both the Core PCE PriceIndex m/m data and Unemployment Claims statistics. These pivotal announcementsare expected to provide valuable insights into the economic landscapes of thesenations.CNY -Manufacturing PMI
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stands as a crucial gauge of economic vitality. Reflecting rapid business responses to shifting market dynamics, this index is anchored in the insights of purchasing managers who offer a timely and pertinent perspective on their companies' economic outlook. It is underpinned by a comprehensive survey reaching 3,000 purchasing managers, who evaluate various business parameters such as employment trends, production volumes, new order influx, pricing structures, supplier delivery efficiency, and inventory statuses. These collective responses shape a clear picture of the manufacturing sector's health and, by extension, the broader economic landscape.
In October 2023, China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 49.5, falling below market expectations of 50.2. This decline reflects the fragility of the nation's economic recovery, indicating the need for additional government support measures. New orders contracted, foreign sales declined, and employment continued to decrease, while output and buying levels also saw softer growth. Input price inflation decreased to a three-month low, and output prices fell for the first time in three months. However, business confidence showed a slight improvement.
TL;DR
Aspect
Details
1 PMI Overview
Gauge of economic vitality, based on survey of 3,000 purchasing managers
2 Survey Parameters
Employment trends, production volumes, new orders, pricing, supplier delivery, inventory status
3 China's NBS Manufacturing PMI (October 2023)
Dropped to 49.5, below expectations of 50.2
4 Economic Implications
Indicates fragility in economic recovery, need for government support measures
5 Specific Trends
New orders contracted, decrease in foreign sales and employment, softer growth in output and buying levels
6 Price Fluctuations
Input price inflation decreased to a three-month low, output prices fell first time in three months
7 Business Confidence
Slight improvement observed
The Manufacturing PurchasingManagers' Index (PMI) is forecasted to remain steady at 49.5, mirroring its previous level, indicating consistent industry conditions.
The upcoming Manufacturing PMI report is scheduled for release at 1:30 AM GMT on Thursday, November 30th,2023.
CAD - GDP m/m
GDP m/m is a crucial indicator of economic health, reflecting the nation's overall economic well-being and vitality.
In August, real gross domestic product (GDP) remained virtually stagnant for the second consecutive month, with several factors including rising interest rates, inflation, forest fires, and drought conditions exerting pressure on the economy. During the month, services-producing industries saw a modest 0.1% increase, whereas goods-producing industries contracted by 0.2%. In total, 8 out of 20 industrial sectors experienced growth.
In September 2023, Canada's GDP showed no growth, reflecting a stagnation in the third quarter due to declines in sectors like mining, quarrying, and utilities, despite gains in construction and public sector output. This stagnation aligns with the Bank of Canada's observations of dampened demand due to rising borrowing costs, with notable contractions in manufacturing, food services, and retail trade, but gains in mining and oil and gas extraction due to increased oil prices.
TL;DR
Month
Overall GDP Trend
Influencing Factors
Industry-Specific Trends
1 August
Stagnant
Rising interest rates, inflation, forest fires, droughts
Services: +0.1%; Goods: -0.2%; Growth in 8 out of 20 sectors
2 September
No growth
Stagnation in Q3; impacts of rising borrowing costs
Declines in mining, quarrying, utilities; Gains in construction, public sector; Contraction in manufacturing, food services, retail; Gain in mining/oil & gas due to oil prices
The GDP m/m forecast shows a stable trend, with no change expected at 0%, maintaining the same level as in the previous period.
The upcoming release of the GDPm/m data is scheduled for Thursday, November 30, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, the Canadian GDP m/m wasannounced on 31st of October, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (USDCAD M5) below:USD - Core PCEPrice Index m/m
Inflation, a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, plays a significant role in currency valuation as rising prices lead the central bank to increase interest rates, fulfilling its mandate to effectively manage inflation.
In September 2023, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding volatile items like food and energy, rose by 0.3%, meeting market forecasts and marking the most significant rise in four months. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rate, closely watched by the Federal Reserve, edged down to 3.7%, still above the central bank's 2% target. The broader PCE index also saw a 0.4% month-on-month increase, consistent with August's figures and surpassing predictions, with a year-on-year rate of 3.4%, in line with prior expectations.
TL;DR
Indicator
September 2023 Data
Market Forecasts/Comparisons
1 Core PCE Price Index
Rose by 0.3%, excluding food and energy
Met market forecasts, most significant rise in four months
2 Annual Inflation Rate
Edged down to 3.7%
Above the Federal Reserve's 2% target
3 Broader PCE Index
Month-on-month increase of 0.4%
Consistent with August's figures, surpassed predictions
4 Year-on-Year Rate
3.4%
In line with prior expectations
The latest forecast for the Core PCE Price Index m/m indicates a consistent trend, with an expected rate of 0.3%, matching the previous figure.
The next Core PCE Price Index m/m data is set for release on Thursday, November 30, 2023, at 1:30 PM GMT.
The last time, the US Core PCE Price Indexm/m was announced on 27th of October, 2023. You may find the reactiongraph (USDJPY M5) below:USD – UnemploymentClaims
The unemployment rate, a critical lagging indicator, plays a vital role in assessing a country's economic well-being. It directly affects consumer spending through labor market dynamics and significantly influences the development of national monetary policy.
The latest US unemployment claims dropped significantly to 209,000 in the week ending November 18th, surpassing market expectations and marking a sharp decline from the previous three-month high, while continuing claims also decreased. This decline eases concerns about a slowing labor market and could support the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining higher interest rates to combat inflation. Additionally, the four-week moving average fell slightly, and a notable increase in non-seasonally adjusted claims was observed, particularly in California, Oregon, and Kentucky.
Recent forecasts suggest a modest rise in Unemployment claims, moving up from 220,000 to 222,000, indicating a slight shift in the job market.
The much-anticipated UnemploymentClaims report is scheduled to be released on November 30th at 1:30 PMGMT, providing critical insights into the labor market's condition and its broader economic implications.
The last time, the US Unemployment Claimswas announced on the 22nd of November, 2023. You may find the marketreaction graph (XAUUSD M5) below:
