Many think that the RBA's responses to high inflation have been...

Many think that the RBA's responses to high inflation have been too feeble. Perhaps the outgoing governor will want history to show that he had a firmer hand. So, a rate rise today is possible.

But everybody, including the RBA, knows that most of the RBA's forecasts turn out to be wrong. So, the outgoing governor won't want to stick his neck out too far. Besides, his track record indicates that he seems to favour low interest rates.

The incoming governor appears to have substantial property interests and borrowings, (I think that it is unbelievable that this is tolerated), and so appears to have a vested interest in keeping rates low.

How can all these factors be balanced? Perhaps a compromise and a tidy-up at the same time, so I predict a 0.15% rate rise today to take the cash rate to 4.25%. If so, then the market response will be neutral.