Having studied probability theory I want to point out that it is...

Having studied probability theory I want to point out that it is theoretically unsound assigning a probability to a single event --- doesn't make mathematical sense. You can only assign a probability to a large collection of events. Since they are only drilling one hole then there will either be gas or there won't be but that doesn't mean 50/50 either. The success of the area "carnarvon basin" is about 22% based on approximately 700 holes drilled since the 70s. I just wanted to get that off my chest....