32% chance of success - what is it now?, page-5

From the Baillieu Research on MEO:

Our risk factors take into account the recent success rate in
the Carnarvon basin, where approximately six out of 10
wells drilled after 3D seismic have resulted in a commercial
discovery. Therefore our 30 to 50 percent probability factor
is below actual industry experience, but is justified due to
the fact that the Artemis play is not a conventional
structure-based drilling target and, due to the nature of
the overlying geomorphology, the risks associated with
seismic interpretation are high.