Very true Doc, I have always hated generation of a statistical probabilty figure from subjective variables.
The flaw of stating "22% of 700 wells" is that the pre-drill data is FAR more powerful now than in was in the 70s, so attributing the same weight to each data point is not really appropriate.
Do we know what the hit rate is for, say, the past 5-10 years?
32% chance of success - what is it now?, page-6
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