You would need a data set from the area that drilled holes based on the same 3D seismic measurements , that would give you the best idea as to what the "probability" is. I searched around for this data at one stage but I have a day job so couldn't find the time to do it.... This is why the use the 1.6 fudge factor in their calculations. You have approx. 20% times this fudge factor to get 32%...where did this factor come from....well they just made it up. There is no real reason to have 1.6 over 1.5 or 1.7 or even 1.756.... its just that others have used this factor in the past but because every uses it it becomes justified.... I always feel queasy when I read this type of mathematics....
but we do know that they have already had a gas blow out. I always base my decisions this type of knowledge not dodgy maths....
MEO Price at posting:
53.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
