Hi GuysSoon you will all be able to plot my history in the oil...

Hi Guys

Soon you will all be able to plot my history in the oil patch from onshore Oz, SE Asia and now Thailand. Should also mention the a passing experience in the N.Sea, USA, West Africa, Middle East and North Africa.

So as this is the CVN thread lets look at them and try and answer a few questions.

Thailand, back when I was involved with Wichian Buri field (my employer drilled discovery well in 1992 I think), although a nice discovery we were being completely hammer by the low fixed oil price that we where paid by Thailand National Oil Company, CVN has resolved this major issue it would appear.

So what has changed, a new reservoir and better oil quality has been found which allows oil to be commercial produced and it appear to be huge in extent.

The new target is this volcanic layer, which appears to be quite extensive (seismic response seen), now I am not sure what type of volcanic rock it is, granite or basalt or something in between but it appear to have no matrix porosity.

No matrix porosity means that all the oil being produced is from fracture system which can be (it is) impossible to calculate the areal extent and possible reserves and recovery percentage. You can make assumptions but you do not have enough data to give you a real picture, ten year of oil production would make it some what easier. Depending on fracture density (how many fracture per foot etc) the net porosity of the rock is between 0.25 to 1.5 percent, very low but with huge permeability.

CVN and Ted knows that the bump is large and has a nice oil column but no ones knows how quickly or slowly will water production arrive.

Some oil field in S.America also have limited matrix porosity but have been huge producers, one well has produced over 20 million barrels no water, phenomenal production.

So what has Ted got, excitement, huge upside, soon to be self funding.

Downside - water cut and failure of the next two wells (I think unlikely).

We already know that the current well are targeting a large areal extensive discovery with numerous fault block, we do not know is details on the oil column thickness, pressure data and whether the oil water contact is consistent across the field as most of this data hasn't been collected yet due to only two or three wells so far completed.

We do know that from the latest well the production is via a beam pump, no problems with this just more expensive rather than normal pressure deletion before pumping.

So what my view, well I have money invested in TAP (cash in bank, poor management in regard to expanding it exploration portfolio and therefore a T/O play), ARQ (Canning Basin exposure and proven operator) and CVN (huge underrated oil discovery with some risk).

So on signs of weakness I am a top up buyer, last purchase a week ago at 12.5 cents and I am not selling.

I hope that answer the questions as best I can.

cheers

PC43

PS If all three new wells are successful and CVN can prove common oil water contact via well pressure data, it would then be a proven big oil discovery, not a bad punt compared to a lot of the other spec in the market.