Would like some people to poke holes in my valuation please, posting this more as a learning experience (I am still a new investor).
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As reported:
FY 20 Q1 QRR $ 269,000
FY 20 Q2 QRR $ 307,000
That's a 14% growth rate, so let's assume a 14% growth rate stays consistent.
FY 20 Q3 QRR $ 350,368
FY 20 Q4 QRR $ 399,862
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Receipts so far:
Q1 FY 20- $1.5M
Q2 FY20 -$1.49M
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Reoccurring revenue excludes rentals, so let's take the QRR out of the quarterly results
Q1 FY 20:
Received$1.5M -QRR of $269k = $1.23M of Hardware/Rental/Field services work.
Q2 FY20
Received:$1.49M - QRR of$307k = $1.18M of Hardware/Rental/Field services work.
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So now making some assumptions:
Q3 FY 20
14%assumed QRR growth = $350k + assumption of 5% growth in Hardware/rental/field services = $1.24M which gives us a Q3 target to of $1.6M
Q4 FY 20
14%assumed QRR growth = $399k + assumption of 5% growth in Hardware/rental/field services = $1.3M which gives us a Q4 target to of $1.7M
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So my projection for FY20 is $6.6M.
I dug a bit deeper to see what the market has historically priced us at, this I find interesting -
So we floated on July 2017 at 20c with 41M shares for market cap of $8.2M, the FY17 revenue figures were $1.3M which gives us a multiple of 6 on the IPO. The SP hit all time high of 44c in Jan, 2018 with 44M shares on issue with market cap of $19.6M, revenues at the time of ~$2.6M which gives us a multiplier of 7.
So based on historical data,let's use a x5 multiple.
Shares on issue from the latest Appendix B: 75,633,065
FY20 target $6.6M x 5 = $66M market cap / shares on issue = 0.42
Current total Liabilities at $2M, total Equity $2.6M.
I guess the kicker is the OPEX which will be ~ $7.5M for FY20 according to my projections which brings us at about a 16% gap between revenue & burn. That 16%gap can closed if the hardware/rental/field services growth increases by 10%QoQ. Which I believe is possible this CY.
Appreciate your feedback and thoughts on my thinking here. Overall the numbers show we are very much undervalued.
Cheers!
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3.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $11.09M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
3.3¢ | 3.5¢ | 3.3¢ | $1.152K | 34.33K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 5497 | 3.3¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.5¢ | 409765 | 6 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 5497 | 0.033 |
1 | 20000 | 0.032 |
2 | 105000 | 0.031 |
1 | 8878 | 0.030 |
1 | 100000 | 0.028 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.035 | 409765 | 6 |
0.036 | 450000 | 2 |
0.038 | 78947 | 1 |
0.039 | 57692 | 1 |
0.040 | 593418 | 1 |
Last trade - 14.18pm 12/09/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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