Would like some people to poke holes in my valuation please,...

  1. Eqz
    4,033 Posts.
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    Would like some people to poke holes in my valuation please, posting this more as a learning experience (I am still a new investor).
    --------------------------
    As reported:
    FY 20 Q1 QRR $ 269,000
    FY 20 Q2 QRR $ 307,000

    That's a 14% growth rate, so let's assume a 14% growth rate stays consistent.

    FY 20 Q3 QRR $ 350,368
    FY 20 Q4 QRR $ 399,862


    --------------------------
    Receipts so far:
    Q1 FY 20- $1.5M
    Q2 FY20 -$1.49M

    --------------------------
    Reoccurring revenue excludes rentals, so let's take the QRR out of the quarterly results
    Q1 FY 20:

    Received$1.5M -QRR of $269k = $1.23M of Hardware/Rental/Field services work.
    Q2 FY20
    Received:$1.49M - QRR of$307k = $1.18M of Hardware/Rental/Field services work.
    --------------------------
    So now making some assumptions:
    Q3 FY 20
    14%assumed QRR growth = $350k + assumption of 5% growth in Hardware/rental/field services = $1.24M which gives us a Q3 target to of $1.6M
    Q4 FY 20
    14%assumed QRR growth = $399k + assumption of 5% growth in Hardware/rental/field services = $1.3M which gives us a Q4 target to of $1.7M
    --------------------------
    So my projection for FY20 is $6.6M.

    I dug a bit deeper to see what the market has historically priced us at, this I find interesting -
    So we floated on July 2017 at 20c with 41M shares for market cap of $8.2M, the FY17 revenue figures were $1.3M which gives us a multiple of 6 on the IPO. The SP hit all time high of 44c in Jan, 2018 with 44M shares on issue with market cap of $19.6M, revenues at the time of ~$2.6M which gives us a multiplier of 7.

    So based on historical data,let's use a x5 multiple.
    Shares on issue from the latest Appendix B: 75,633,065

    FY20 target $6.6M x 5 = $66M market cap / shares on issue = 0.42
    Current total Liabilities at $2M, total Equity $2.6M.


    I guess the kicker is the OPEX which will be ~ $7.5M for FY20 according to my projections which brings us at about a 16% gap between revenue & burn.
    That 16%gap can closed if the hardware/rental/field services growth increases by 10%QoQ. Which I believe is possible this CY.
    Appreciate your feedback and thoughts on my thinking here. Overall the numbers show we are very much undervalued.
    Cheers!


    Last edited by Eqz: 09/02/20
 
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