Morningstar's latest following last weeks cc - imho $1500 aud gold is extremely conservative. Note a $42 valuation based on $1000 aud gold.
"""Our FY12 NPAT forecast is little changed at $1.21bn assuming A$1,569/oz gold and A$3.43/lb copper in 2H12. Similarly, our stable FY13 NPAT forecast of $1.26bn is based on A$1,414/oz gold and A$3.88/lb copper. The valuation remains $42.75 a share with stable long term assumptions of A$1,000/oz gold, A$3.13/lb copper and a 10% discount rate. We include a 1.6x NPV gold sector premium. Using a flat A$1,500/oz gold price ups the valuation 34% to $57.45. The impending secondary listing in Canada may help NCM recapture some of the gold premium it appears to have recently lost. Major expansions at Cadia East and Lihir remain on track."""
NCM Price at posting:
$34.08 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
