Cogent post vegepatch. Though I'm not a FAR holder I am not adverse to these potentially high return plays - however I prefer those (like KAR) with multiple bites at the cherry where even if the first well is a failure you are significantly derisked by (usually) being able to exit with your capital largely intact in the leadup to a subsequent well. Given FAR (and MEO for that matter) are one hit wonders and have a large chance of failing - even the bullish FAR fans wouldn't put success from this point at above 50% surely? - it may be considered foolish to have too much tied up in the senegal outcome.
Leaving aside my reluctance to rely upon Hartleys' 'analysis', I'd suggest that the COS would need to be above 15% before there was value in the SP. As for CSEM I'd suggest it is still a technique in need of refining and is far from conclusive. If you have concerns regarding whether oil is there that keep you awake at night, I'd suggest you may want to carefully consider your level of exposure?
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