3DA 2024 and beyond, page-575

  1. 65 Posts.
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    It's been a while, but I'm still a fan of Hank and Amaero. One cautionary note, and a couple of potential upsides.

    - Amaero doesn't seem to have a chief commercial officer at present. Steve Kachur got demoted to a consultant, and the half-yearly states they are looking for a new CCO with experience in complex defence sales.

    - I didn't love the raise price (and I bet Hank didn't either), but they are now fully funded if you include the executed EXIM loan. This means that the share price effectively doesn't matter now until commercialisation / break even is reached. This sux for retail, but should have little impact on Hank & the institutions. I even appreciated some early instos doubled down which is reassuring.

    - My notes from a year ago showed an estimate of only 10tons Ti64 powder produced/sold in CY25 (this was from one of the videos 3-12 months prior to this). This was supported by having the first EIGA dedicated to Nb-C103 and other specialty high priced alloys, whilst atomisers 2-4 would be Ti64, and thus reduce changeover (no production) time. The second EIGA should be commissioned mid-CY25 from memory.

    BUT The half-yearly / supply agreement suggested a minimum purchase of 45tons of Ti64 bar to get the advantageous pricing from Parryman - even with 50% conversion from bar to highest quality powder, that's more than the earlier 10 tons of Ti64.

    Net, mostly still in, but keen, if not impatient, to get the commercial off-take side going. There is no advantage for retail shareholders to watch whilst they see value being destroyed or frittered month after month.
 
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