I don't rate Stuart Douglas at all unfortunately. All my faith is in Barrie Finnin and the Chairman David Hanna (as a genuine strategic business guy). I just get the feel of Stuart he is an excited young pup, knows how to make money for sure but only ever sees best case scenarios. The previous presentations in 2020 and early 2021 talking up the comparison to NASDAQ listed DeskTop Metals which has fallen some 70-80% since comparison to it. It's embarassing.
But the Company must be relatively confident to announce $30M then revise it up to $40M, and multiple times now talk to increasing (subject to demand) to 5 modules if not x10 production.
Considering that:
$8Million CAPEX
$40Milliion revenue
6 month Payback / Return on expenditure
= $20Million in 6 months
= $8Million Nett Profit / 6 months or $16Million per year
= ~40% profit margin?
Multiple that by x5 Atomizers
$200Million revenue (by that stage you could discount the sale price based on significant quantities though)
@ 40% margin
= $80Million Nett Profit
PE Ration 10
= $800M market cap
Lots and lots of things to prove on the way there. But that also ignores everything else they are working on.
All fairy tale numbers until they happen, and they are 2, 3 or more years away from really starting to prove their commercial standing, but I always bought with the long game in mind. I just didn't expect to buy in the 50c and 60c range (and at the earlier/cheaper stages also) and 12 months later be sitting here without any additional funds to put into a stock that is already 70% of my portfolio.
I assure you I am as frustrated as anyone else that has managed to hold on this long, but also comfortable when I step back that the long term outcome is good, just that I could have made money elsewhere over the last 12 months can be a negative if I so choose to look at it like that.
Meh, see you all in 2024 with a big grin hopefully.
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