Notice the lag between stated ACV (AU$) and Most Recent 4 Quarters Cash Receipts Total?
Dec-18 Update: Stated ACV AU$0.93M @ End of January
Dec-19 Update: Cash received in last 4 quarters $1.14M
Difference: Cash more by 23%
Mar-19 Update: Stated ACV AU$1.32M @ End of April
Mar-20 Update: Cash received in last 4 quarters $1.24M
Difference: Cash less only by 6%
Jun-19 Update: Stated ACV AU$1.85M @ End of July
Jun-20 Update: Cash received in last 4 quarters $1.85M
Difference: None
Sep-19 Update: Stated ACV AU$2.41M @ End of October
Sep-20 Update: Cash received in last 4 quarters $2.15M
Difference: Cash less only by 11%
12 month lag between a stated ACV (AU$) and Most Recent 4 Quarters Cash Receipts Total?
Based on the data trend we're beginning to observe, we'll quite likely see the recently stated ~AU$6.91M ACV (US$4.93M ACV x 1.4 current US/AU conversion rate) paid in full (or an amount close to that) in the next 4 quarters.
Put another way, I suspect that the next 4 quarters total cash received by the company will come close to the recently stated ~AU$6.91M (converted) ACV. With this assumption, we can make a further assumption that, in the next four quarters, we should see a quarterly
average of
AU$1.73M (AU$6.91 ACV / 4 quarters) in cash receipts,
each quarter,
as an average.
Please remember, cash receipts can, and will, be lumpy (from the recent 4C Quarterly):
"As in previous quarters, the Company again notes that
quarter-on-quarter cash receipts may continue to be variable as new customers are on-boarded following contract award with a
variety of different payment cycles including monthly, quarterly, annually and even multi-year in advance agreements.This ongoing
variability in quarterly cash receipts is however expected to smooth out in time as ACV continues to grow and the size and diversity of Pointerra’s portfolio of DaaS, AaaS and DPaaS customers continues to mature."
Do keep in mind that the
reported end of September ACV was for two months only (and not the usual 3 months). Taking this into account, it seems (at least to me) that achieving
an average of at least that of AU$1.73M in cash receipts over the next four quarters is not only achievable, but also highly probable.
Another thought I had recently: While I'd love for the company to report their ACV for the full 3 months, this time, so as to include October, I wouldn't be surprised to see the company to report ACV value for the actual reporting 4C quarter (OCT-DEC, instead of what would have been NOV-JAN) from here on out.
