I averaged down a bit too, but not near the $3s it got to today! The share price going down so quickly is definitely making me concerned - what did we miss?
The market cap is now $234m. Based on NSR of $216/l, the current liquidation value of the whisky is ~$180m. Add in the ~$50m of net cash and ~$20m of PPE, and Lark is now trading at a discount to it's net tangible assets.
And if you factor in say 15% increase in the NSR that their outlook includes, well then the liquidation value of the whisky is closer to $210m and Lark is trading at ~20% discount to its net tangible assets.
This is looking like a repeat of November 2020 for Treasury Wine Estate. When the China bad was announced, it traded down to ~$9 which was at or below it's net tangible assets. The business has improved a bit since then, and still plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but the share price rebounded like 30-40% as well. It proved to be a great buying opportunity.
Unless I am missing something as to why the NSR is heading down against management's outlook, I think we'll look back on this period as a similar situation. Personally not trying to trade this or pick the bottom, just looking for a good entry point in a company that I'll happily hold.
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I averaged down a bit too, but not near the $3s it got to today!...
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Last
86.5¢ |
Change
-0.035(3.89%) |
Mkt cap ! $64.76M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
90.0¢ | 90.0¢ | 85.5¢ | $68.29K | 78.21K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 19845 | 86.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
87.5¢ | 45 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
5 | 11134 | 0.860 |
2 | 25980 | 0.850 |
1 | 10000 | 0.840 |
1 | 1500 | 0.820 |
2 | 4268 | 0.800 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.865 | 4536 | 1 |
0.875 | 45 | 1 |
0.880 | 5000 | 1 |
0.885 | 1130 | 1 |
0.890 | 4986 | 1 |
Last trade - 12.38pm 25/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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LRK (ASX) Chart |