I averaged down a bit too, but not near the $3s it got to today!...

I averaged down a bit too, but not near the $3s it got to today! The share price going down so quickly is definitely making me concerned - what did we miss?

The market cap is now $234m. Based on NSR of $216/l, the current liquidation value of the whisky is ~$180m. Add in the ~$50m of net cash and ~$20m of PPE, and Lark is now trading at a discount to it's net tangible assets.

And if you factor in say 15% increase in the NSR that their outlook includes, well then the liquidation value of the whisky is closer to $210m and Lark is trading at ~20% discount to its net tangible assets.

This is looking like a repeat of November 2020 for Treasury Wine Estate. When the China bad was announced, it traded down to ~$9 which was at or below it's net tangible assets. The business has improved a bit since then, and still plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but the share price rebounded like 30-40% as well. It proved to be a great buying opportunity.

Unless I am missing something as to why the NSR is heading down against management's outlook, I think we'll look back on this period as a similar situation. Personally not trying to trade this or pick the bottom, just looking for a good entry point in a company that I'll happily hold.