I averaged down a bit too, but not near the $3s it got to today! The share price going down so quickly is definitely making me concerned - what did we miss?
The market cap is now $234m. Based on NSR of $216/l, the current liquidation value of the whisky is ~$180m. Add in the ~$50m of net cash and ~$20m of PPE, and Lark is now trading at a discount to it's net tangible assets.
And if you factor in say 15% increase in the NSR that their outlook includes, well then the liquidation value of the whisky is closer to $210m and Lark is trading at ~20% discount to its net tangible assets.
This is looking like a repeat of November 2020 for Treasury Wine Estate. When the China bad was announced, it traded down to ~$9 which was at or below it's net tangible assets. The business has improved a bit since then, and still plenty of reasons to be optimistic, but the share price rebounded like 30-40% as well. It proved to be a great buying opportunity.
Unless I am missing something as to why the NSR is heading down against management's outlook, I think we'll look back on this period as a similar situation. Personally not trying to trade this or pick the bottom, just looking for a good entry point in a company that I'll happily hold.
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I averaged down a bit too, but not near the $3s it got to today!...
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Last
95.5¢ |
Change
0.015(1.60%) |
Mkt cap ! $83.60M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
93.5¢ | 95.5¢ | 92.0¢ | $80.71K | 85.74K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1000 | 92.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
95.5¢ | 2659 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 1000 | 0.925 |
5 | 28754 | 0.900 |
1 | 600 | 0.870 |
1 | 10000 | 0.845 |
1 | 1 | 0.810 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.955 | 2659 | 2 |
0.980 | 25000 | 1 |
0.985 | 3855 | 2 |
0.990 | 5000 | 1 |
0.995 | 3511 | 1 |
Last trade - 15.32pm 06/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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LRK (ASX) Chart |