STB is about to join the $4 club. Let's recall the fundamentals.
Potash in Eritrea, target 500mt - 750mt @ 21% - 25% potash.
Potash current price is $350/t but some contracts are struck at $550/t.
My estimate:
Sales $36b (500 @ 21% x $350)
Total cash cost $24b ($230 x 105mt)
Capex $3b for 2mtpa production
Profit $9b. NPV (10) over 25 years = $4.26 per share on inferred resource of 500mt.
