It's an interesting proposition right now, and I wish you well....

It's an interesting proposition right now, and I wish you well. I do think it's a very solid business, obviously in the 'right' conditions, however, as someone who has been in since the lows of $2.4 back some years ago, I've started to take the opportunity in recent days/weeks to lighten my position. In fact, further strength from here will encourage me to continue doing so until an exit.

What one needs to remember is if you're making any sort of comparison to the past performance of the stock - not always reliable admittedly - you need to 'mark up' the current price (by about 2.5-2.6x). So when people talk about all-time highs of $17, where air travel was going absolutely gangbusters, that price is really about $6.60 today. Why? Because of the significant dilution that took place, which has an impact on price/earnings going forward, yet alone before the impact of reduced travel (i.e. earnings)

In that frame of light, I've been asking myself, in the current and near-term climate, where air travel is down say 90%+ and in recovery mode could take a few years just to reach the past levels it was at (yet alone grow from there), what size 'discount' should be reflected upon the company's past performance and share price? So if the stock say, reaches $4, which is equivalent to over $10 pre-CR, is a 25-30% discount representative of the state of the industry? If the price gets to $5, which is equivalent to a $12.5+ pre-CR price, you then start to ask where is the 'discount' at all in the midst of the worst-ever air and health crisis.

Like I said, quality company longer-term, say 3-5 years, and they may start to pick up acquisitions here and there, which could work well for them as competitors struggle. But I'd ask yourself how quickly you expect global air travel to not just reach its past levels but begin growing. I know I'll be keen to travel, but you can just about put a line through a large chunk of people who won't have the inclination in the near to mid term out of financial, anxiety, 'health' or other concerns. So is that representative of just a 'modest' discount when comparing the share price movement in the last six months?