I’m hoping for $440m oct ytd , 68% growth yoy , knowing that i...

I’m hoping for $440m oct ytd , 68% growth yoy , knowing that i may be largely wrong. 430-450m seems like a reasonable, of course I am happy to be proven wrong by seeing much bigger numbers

I won’t disclose how I got to this number, but I present the average monthly run rates (sales) that everyone should have anyway:

Fy17
Jul-oct 17: 38,800
Nov-dec 17: 50,391
Jan-mar 17: 44,173
Apr-jun 17: 53,582

Fy18
Jul-oct 18: 65,550
Nov-dec 18: 86,215
Jan-mar 18: 75,124
Apr-Jun 18: 87,451

From the above you can conclude (based on the seasonality, growth, etc) that the minimum the monthly run rate for July - oct will be 87,451, based on the latest quarter.

But last quarters run rate seems to be lower than usual - if you calculate yoy growth on fy17, the first 9 months (and each quarter) was growing at 70%, whereas Apr to Jun only grew at 63%. Did it drop because the growth slowed down? Maybe. But my suspicion tells me that it was to do with the change of label thus it affected sales.

So I have a strong feeling that anyone who expects <360m oct ytd will be hugely disappointed, because I haven’t even talked about the growth on the last quarter.