MGR is extremely cheap and I expect it to double in the short to medium term, as well as triple or quadruple over the next 4 to 5 years.
Here is why (of course DYOR):
As at 31 July 2020, there were 3.934 billion stapled securities on issue. Evidence:
Which means the market cap is around $8.2 billion.
If you look at MPT's annual report, total assets were $10.8 billion and net assets were $8.7 billion.
Now because MGR is a stapled security consisting of the property trust + the development company, you are buying the property trust at a discount to NTA and getting the development business FOR FREE.
The development company alone has around ~$2 billion of net assets. However, Mirvac - the development company - is ultimately a brand, and therefore it should not trade at asset backing. The intangible nature of a brand means that it should trade a multiple of tangible assets (primarily cash on hand and work on hand).
This is why MGR should trade at ~$4.
Longer term, with all this money printing from global central banks, property prices should rise proportionately to the amount printed. In my opinion, property prices will at least double in the next 4-5 years.
This uplift will also increase the value of the development business in addition to the value of the property trust, and is the reason why I think MGR has upside of $6+ (quite possibly $8).
(20min delay)