NT researchers warn of potential pandemicsA Northern Territory...

NT researchers warn of potential pandemics
A Northern Territory researcher says more than 40,000 people could die in less than eight weeks if bird flu reached Australia.

Professor Bart Currie, from the Menzies School of Health Research, has identified bird flu as Australia's number one communicable disease threat.

He says other diseases that could cause a regional epidemic in northern areas include Japanese encephalitis (JE), melioidosis, malaria and dengue fever.

Professor Currie says the likelihood of bird flu spreading from Asia is currently at its highest.

"The potential impact over six to eight weeks in Australia of a pandemic flu with a virulent strain as occurred in 1918 in six to eight weeks - 13,000 to 44,000 deaths, 150,000 hospitalisations and up to 7.5 million outpatient visits," he said.

Professor Currie says a potential JE outbreak could occur through mosquitos carried by monsoonal winds from Papua New Guinea.

He says monsoonal winds can sweep from north Queensland into the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Northern Territory.

Professor Currie says the disease caused two deaths on the Torres Strait Islands in 1995 and there were two non-fatal cases in northern Queensland.

"It has become established JE virus on the Torres Strait Islands and all the people in the Torres Straight are vaccinated against JE, so the virus activity continues in pigs in the Torres Straight and last year again on the mainland it reappeared," he said.

Malaria

Meanwhile, an NT researcher is asking the Federal Government to increase its contribution to an international fund to stop the further spread of malaria.

About 1.4 million people in the Asia-Pacific region alone are exposed to infection every year.

Professor Nicholas Anstey, also from the Menzies School of Health Research, has told a health forum in Darwin that researchers are on the cusp of finalising drug treatments that are cheap and effective.

But he says many countries are not giving enough money to the agencies that distribute new drug therapies to at-risk countries.

"From 2001 to 2003, Australia contributed nothing," he said.

"Reluctantly in 2004 and 2005 it contributed $17 million over two years and a minimum of $50 million a year was required, based on its adjusted gross national income."