Thanks Jack - I think you may get some VAU's in the high 20's - the disintegration of US markets and the NASDAC in particular, as well as theGDX and GDXJ, is ominous - having experience 87' 2000' 2008 market bubble crashes ( "this time its different" ) I see disturbing parallels.
I have constantly emphasised the overall importance of market stability for the maintenance of gold miner values, because when things get really bad, the market sells everything, the good with the bad, to deal with margin calls, and because short attacks and similar market mechanisms, driven by professional shorters, utilising bots, misinformation and fear, create cascades that are like a snowflake turning into an avalanche that sweeps all before it.
Gold bugs (always) think "this time its different" gold will go up while all others fall because of "golds fundamental" "de-dollarisation" etc etc.
This is not what happened historically, and the POG will fall, albeit to levels where some producers remain profitable and M&A super sharks.
During the 1930's, good gold miners paid good dividends .... that hasn't been repeated since, nor will it likely in the future IMHO.
Gold miner companies first reflex will be to batten down the hatches and engage in strategies that "ever green" their company (rather than issue dividends that may not be sustainable and could be used for M&A etc) .... and this will be sold to shareholders as "capital growth" bla bla bla.
Sound familiar ??
The endless idiotic banter on the HC VAU blog by those "loyal to SLR or RED" shows how many are emotional investors, not hard nosed technical / conservative fundamentalist's, and hence there will be a lot of comment about how the market is mis-pricing VAU, and of course blaming all SP non-performance on "you know who" ... that dastardly, greedy, self-serving, cynical, non-communicative arrogant "fatherless individual" who only interested in self serving M&A to perpetrate the company instead of listening to the advice of Hot Copper experts.
I try to put many of these on ignore, but when a dog keeps returning to its vomit, I cant help reacting - NOT anymore - the situation is too serious.
I was expecting / hoping the market would hold together till after the IOUSA election, as a collapse would surely be fatal for the Democrats, but the rate of decline and disintegration may see another Black October .... brace for impact.
Once upon a time the average person was not affected by what went on in the stock market, or the housing market (to a degree), but that has all changed. Most have Super with heavy exposure to the stockmarket and many have larger leveraged real estate portfolios - the centre will probably hold but people at the margins will once again be crushed ... the more things change the more they stay the same.
Expand
(20min delay)