RED 5.06% 37.5¢ red 5 limited

The A$ POG is making new (non-inflation adjusted) highs as the...

  1. 2,352 Posts.
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    The A$ POG is making new (non-inflation adjusted) highs as the latest crisis unfolds.
    The A$POG did not make new nominal high, first established in 2011, till after the outbreak of COVID hysteria in early 2020.
    After this crisis waned, the POG pulled back till the Ukraine war resulted in a new peak, which was correcting significantly, till the new crisis, the Israel - Gaza war broke out ... this has not reached a peak but the possibilities are scary - only one country in the ME (Israel) has nuclear weapons, and the countries with the largest most professional armies are Iran and Turkey - 2/3rds of Israel's army are reservists.

    The A$ / US$ chart is instructive. Ask yourself what was going on when the A$ made highs and lows.
    In 1993, after "the recession we had to have", the A$ recovered only to crater to a 20yr low post the 2000 crash under the "world's greatest treasurer" Costello, who along with Howard, spent the proceeds of the first China boom of the 2000's, trying to stay in office forever.
    The other "gift" to Australia from that "genius' Costello, was the introduction of low capital gains tax and sanctifying "negative gearing" which in combination with all time high immigration levels, kicked of the housing bull market which leaves Australia with the worlds most expensive RE.

    After the crash in the A$ post 2008, China again rescued the A$, creating another resource boom, culminating in the record A$ high of 2011.
    When the 2011 POG high was A$1802 and US$1913, the A$ was at an all-time high of 111c US compared to current 63c.
    That means the POG of A$1820 with A$111c exchange rate was higher than current with a much weaker dollar .. 3167 x 63/111c = A$1798.

    So for the last 10yrs gold has not keep pace with inflation and has not preserved purchasing power. Just look at Sydney RE prices for a wake up.
    Nixon closed the "gold window" ( the ability to redeem US$ for gold) in 1971 .... the POG went from US$35/oz, then surged to over US800 (best gold trade in history) then back and forth till a peak of over US1000 in 2008, which retraced to US700, before a decade long run to the previous all time high of US1913 before a big retrace to just below US1200 before a gradual rise to US$1600 in 2019 !! .... theN along came COVID.

    Wether gold and gold miners are good investments depends on timing .... Buy in Gloom, Sell in Boom ....
    Gold over a longer time frame has exhibited enormous volatility, and this must be interpreted with what alternate investment are available during these times.
    While gold is in the doldrums, real estate, coal, oil, gas, iron ore, nickel, lithium and other "battery metals" ... have had their day in the sun, where early movers made fortunes while gold bugs battened down their hatches while repeating their mantra's endlessly.
    The current impression of gold as a "safe haven" may last for an indeterminate time but a correction will happen to some degree eventually.
    The most successful gold investors are those who take profits and diversify - legendary Mark Cressy, has made fortunes from gold, nickel and now lithium .... and I bet he has many houses, investment properties and other diversified assets .... ditto Gina and Twiggy.

    Its impossible to say where RED's SP is headed in the short term - long term the value will depend on a host of variables:
    internal growth, M&A, and most importantly the profit margin determined by the POG minus costs.
    I'm still a nervous holder, hoping WW3 doesn't break out, but I'm sitting on cash and mostly RED, and I'm not buying other things as I'm not sure the market wont correct big time, and markets can remain down for long periods.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690842-b4d1bb24f46063bf15252413836edecc.jpg

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690807-a7b5555017c4ef0cc477677892423422.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690827-273f3263ca1c0699114e62f7ee8abf54.jpg
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5690/5690830-d708531556b18c7a42aa8572d95af87a.jpg
    Last edited by MIStragic: 28/10/23
 
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