40c price target, page-7

Their 40cents is based on "price outlook of US$70/bbl oil (real to 1Q16) from 2019 and 0.70A$/US$, and a discount rate of 11%."

and

"We rate SXY as High Risk given a large portion of our valuation is attributed to unconventional gas, which is in the early stages of a multi-year appraisal process and ultimate economics are uncertain. We think the biggest risk to our Buy rating is the sentiment towards unconventional gas for which appraisal will be long- dated before economics are clearly defined.
Downgrades to Citi Research Commodities' long-term oil price outlook on an A$ basis below the assumed US$70/bbl with a 0.70 A$/US$ would decrease our price target on SXY, all else being equal."

This is exactly what I've been saying. The tight gas has long lead times. I can see COE's conventional gas having shorter lead times and it will likely be the first cab of the rank for a TO by BPT in my opinion. We will have to wait and see in any case but the up side is not exceptionally strong at 40cents according to Citigroup. Still a long time to run on their gas play. Which means SXY will be a good play for a long time to come. If I'm right on COE I'll roll the money back into SXY when someone puts their hand up for their gas. Just a matter of timing.

Eshmun