I hope this general overview helps frame the possible situation at Tulainyo-2. I have no unreleased information.
1. The reservoir is porous but not permeable. I have not read about any core or analysis of chip samples so I conclude that the permeability is estimated only from well logs and the surface samples of similar reservoirs. Both have large limitations in estimating permeability so the zones may simply be tite.
2. The zones have formation damage. Given the reported high pressures and the difficulty of keeping the well safe but on pressure balance with the reservoir, it seems likely that some drilling fluid and associated rocks chips/flour were forced into the reservoir when the drilling fluid pressure exceeded the reservoir. A more thorough discussion is below.
3. A combination. Cases like no gas in place, water wet or fracture gas are unlikely from the information announced - and there numerous other possibilities that I expect CRC/PCL have eliminated.
http://petrowiki.org/Formation_damage
http://petrowiki.org/PEH:Formation_Damage
Without more information (and maybe not even then), the answer(s) is uncertain.
If the JV suspects formation damage (after detailed analysis of the test plots which sometimes can be definitive) then they will try to improve the flow. The options are numerous from simply flowing it longer to let is clean up naturally to fracking the well (likely a very small one just to get through the 'skin damage') and everything in between.
Normally a JV will tell the market - we are going to do a remediation process, it may cost x to y and take up to z weeks. No more info than this because each step will guide the next step and honestly they do not know exactly what the path is and if it will work. At the end - success or throw their hands in the air, they will get back to the market and inform.
If it works the engineers are heroes and get a raise if it doesn't the geologists hide in their corner until it is safe.
I know this is very frustrating (note the managers/board are just as frustrated with the engineers as we are with the company). Personally I am going to ride it out REL and PCL in the short/medium term but each holder should make their own decision.
