42% fall in SP possible, page-26

Assuming the details are correct and in the interest of presenting the facts this is a slide lifted off the latest ADV:ASX presso (A graphite hopeful in Canada) and therefore you would think  reasonably independent.

It shows that TON and SYR have roughly equivalent distribution of flake sizes in the "Fine" and "Jumbo" Categories (shown in Blue and Black)  but TON has higher "Large" flake (show in red), SYR has more medium flake (shown in yellow).

In addition to this TON is able to achieve higher purity  from simple floatation which means less impurities need to be removed in the expensive 2nd stage purity processing which usually requires expensive and environmental unfriendly acid treatment  or extreme heating which is also expensive.







On the face of it this would mean a equivalent volume  produced from each of these two companies would net TON a slightly higher price at market  than the same produced from SYR as "Large" flake is more valuable than "Medium" flake.  So generally price moment is driven by existing investors wishing to increase their holding of new investors buying in.

So the advantage SYR has by having 25% in ground Graphite grades (...verses Tons 19%) will be eroded by the fact that they will need higher secondary processing costs to remove more impurities to bring graphite to 99.99% and they will receive a lower "Basket Price" at market for the final product.


If I were a new investor into the graphite space  I would want the maximum possible leverage to the Graphite market ...So which would I choose  SYR with a undiluted mcap of $707m or  TON with a $46m Mcap  ?....

Some also say SYR is further down the development path than Ton which is true... but TON is only 12 months or so  behind. So benefit of being 1st to market will be relatively short-lived IMHO

In my opinion SYR is still  massively overvalued compared to all of its graphite peers ... this cannot be sustained forever.!   The market will ultimately bring balance to the players.


Again the above assumes the details in the ADV Presso are accurate...