GBZ (ASX) 42 reasons to buy GBZ

Originally posted by PetrStiff: ↑

Hope the below helps current and future shareholders. Apologies for the typos. Would love to receive comments and critique.

1. There is lower risk at lower price. GBZ is currently near a 3 year SP low.

2. Gold junior stocks are in a brutal bear market low. This is concurrent with a general market cyclical low. These are two macro economic troughs accumulated into a once in a multi decade buying opportunity. If you aren’t buying now then when will you ever buy?

3. We are at 1:00 in the commodity cycle & corporate behavior clock (see image below). There is only growing momentum from here. More buyers, more TO interest, more capital, more drilling, more catalysts…

4. QLD is a tier one mining jurisdiction with a supportive community and state government.

5. GBZ is small cap and the share price is volatile. Troughs and peaks are large and can multi bag. We are in bargain low and significantly below intrinsic value and other metrics.

6. Take advantage of emotional retail investors exiting the stock. Buy their bargain shares. The arithmetic and common sense investing fundamentals is your tailwind here. Be greedy when others a fearful.

7. The salary of the CEO Peter Rohner is not obtuse is in the order of around $250k. Shareholder cash is respected.

8. The GBZ principal Brisbane office is not obtuse . Shareholder cash is respected.

9. GBZ is under-marketed. Rohner’s presentations and interviews are mere adequate. The marketing material, announcements and presentation slides are unnecessarily technical and inflated and are discounting GBZ value. This is a contrarian buying opportunity. The twin-hills value resource will eventually sell itself and the stock will re-rate.

10. GBZ is not marketable to retail. The legacy and multitude of sideline projects currently being unloaded and farmed out obscures the jewel that is twin hills. Work is required to decipher the business. This is a contrarian buying opportunity. The stock is discounted due to low accessibility. The twin-hills value resource will eventually sell itself and the stock will re-rate.

11. 146m @ 1.9g/t from 104m

12. 523 koz open pit bulk tonnage and 476 koz UG bulk tonnage resource at twin hills. This is growing.

13. Management have the technical skill set to work with sulphide ores and lower gold recoveries associated with an expanding down plunge ephemeral gold system.

14. The Drumond Basin has district scale potential with 13 identified epithermal gold systems

15. Many targets to be drilled down plunge, laterally and undercover. Blue sky resource growth at high grades.

16. There is interest from the majors (Newcrest). Future takeover offers and joint ventures are the best marketing agent for a junior. This catalyst and likely future event will bring new shareholders to the registry but also potentially build a pathway for us to multi bag our shares.

17. Charting technicals suggest that the GBZ SP is bottomed and at near breakout. The current market cap is $31mil. $31mil is near liquidation/book value and it cannot possibly go much lower than this. There is limited downside but blue sky upside.

18. Capital raising triggers bottoming of SP. GBZ is currently trading near or below the recent debt financing value per share. The $10mil convertible note agreement is priced at what is approximately >$0.060 if paid out in full. The imminent sale of the White Dam project is expected to de-risk this debt burden.

19. There are no skeletons in the closet with the twin hills project. The twin hills project is a simple story. It’s a high grade bulk tonnage down plunge under cover prospect with previously exploited shallow resources. Former operators chased high grade veins mirroring nearby Pajingo 4.1MOz operations. This did and does not work. Twin hills is stockwork bearing gold for bulk tonnage extraction.

20. The GBZ team have the relevant capabilities to do the job right and preserve shareholder capital.

21. Micro trumps macro. Twin Hills is profitable regardless of macroeconomic conditions.

22. The Twin Hills project was purchased at $2mil cash. This is very reasonable.

23. There is now clear momentum to chase open resources.

24. Gold exploration is an exciting business that will bring in band wagon retail once we move out from the gold bear market (very soon).

25. High inflation and recession (stagflation) historically triggers a bull market in precious metals. Most of the western world is in a cyclical decline with crippling green energy and socialist policies. Long term debt cycle declines (typically 100 years) increase demand for precious metals. Macroeconomics is you 100% your tailwind here when investing in gold juniors.

26. The board appear to communicate extremely well with shareholders and are quiet transparent.

27. Management are head strong in developing the Drummond Basin to a minable 2-3Moz. This is a clear objective with plenty of momentum. There is definitive optimism and a set plan that management is grinding away at. No deviations and no waste of shareholder funds.

28. Twin Hills is a brownfield and any environmental hurdles are negligible. The project is endorsed by the community and state government.

29. The twin hills project is located 300m east from Gregory Highway. It has access to sealed roads, power, water and a quality workforce.

30. Go big or go home. GBZ is big. Big potential for economical multi oz gold resources.

31. The lasonde curve model is on our side (see chart below). We are now drilling beyond a 1Moz resource at twin hills. Full momentum for SP appreciation to a discovery peak is here.

32. Reasonably tight capital structure. 72mil options remaining. 67mil >$0.1

33. QLD is ranked in the top 10 most attractive mining jurisdictions worldwide by the Fraser Institute (2022)

34. The 3 year share price low is not due to any change in the companies intrinsic value. It is purely market sentiment and fear. Fear from the stagnation of the gold price and inflation. The story is intact and untainted. The project has even more value now but is yet cheaper.

35. Inflation does not significantly impact junior explores. There are no risks of cost overruns, increasing labour costs or material supply issues. A junior explorer runs on intellectual capital and the turn of a drill rig. It’s a good time to buy into exploration plays.

36. Development of a new gold mine in the Drumond Basin is a question of when and not if its going to happen.

37. At a current market cap of $31mil GBZ has a real multi bag potential.

38. Relatively low board ownership of GBZ shares and a low market cap is prey to institutions and take overs. GBZ is likely in the targets for a takeover. This is a good promotional event.

39. This is a low risk high uncertainty speculation. The end result is multiple bags or a 30% loss if you are disciplined in your exit. The market is confused by risk and uncertainty. GBZ is discounted by uncertainty not risk.

40. GBZ is being very shrewd with its farm ins and joint ventures. Shareholder cash is respected.

41. Gold stocks have a massive long term sustainable leverage to the gold price. While most commodity prices equilibrate to the median production cost, gold is not driven by industry demand and the price can run up and hold above production costs for years. Good for developers with a dividend yield and something to look forward to long term foe GBZ.

42. GBZ has passed the filters of Crescat Capital and Joe Mazumdar. Copy the seral successors. Buy GBZ shares.

Expand

Just wanted to add:

* Gold traditionally outperforms 20 days outside the start of the first official recession date (economic cycles since 1973).
* US Dollar depreciation could warm up with both China selling US treasuries and Fed interest rate cuts - gold benefits.
* Around A$20 million of infrastructure at the 309 deposit (quoting PR (web presentation) - decline, access to underground Area 1 and Area 2).
*Could there be a better "nearology play" for Twin Hills and Yandan than having NCM potentially drill 20,000m and A$25 million spend at Mt Coolon? Are other juniors at $14million market cap lucky enough to have this?
* Ernst Henry is one of Australia's greatest copper/gold mines - ask Evolution. Nippon/GBM drilling close to the EH open pit.
* The Drummond Basin little known. Why? As a junior goldie in an operational rule of law jurisdiction - even in the minimum 1.5 million ounce resource category - we compete for attention with a WA centric gold industry and WA players in this country. I'm getting sick of yesterdays stories of Kalgoorlie, Boddington, Norseman, Laverton, Hemi, the Leonora consolidation etc etc. Anyone else?

Best to all holders.

Above is not financial advice and my opinion only

(20min delay)
Last 0.9¢		Change -0.001(10.0%)		Mkt cap ! $10.41M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
1.0¢	1.0¢	0.9¢	$22.55K	2.343M

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	1141145	0.009
13	3545797	0.008
3	450000	0.007
3	2200000	0.006
2	220000	0.005

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.010	382	1
0.011	548838	2
0.012	1117102	3
0.013	1200000	1
0.014	1529815	5


Last 0.9¢		Change -0.001 ( 10.0 %)
Open	High	Low	Volume
1.0¢	1.0¢	0.9¢	1756250
Last updated 15.55pm 24/05/2024 ?

Just wanted to add:* Gold traditionally outperforms 20 days...

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