$43.71 to now - what has changed??

In no particular order here is what has happened since the NCM peak last year

Gold in aud now $10 an ounce HIGHER
Both copper and silver HIGHER
Barclays have accumulated a 6.5% position
Production in Ivory COast at reduced capacity
Old CEO departing
World wide inflation kicking in
SIGNIFICANT reserve upgrade at Wafi Golpu with the likelyhood of more to come.

Netting all of these events out I would say on balance the fundamentals for NCM have improved - others may disagree.

Yes we all know that technically the chart says don't touch this stock however given that the stock has fallen 20% from its peak with an improved gold price outlook plus reserve upgrade etc NCM reads as extremely oversold.

The market is what the market is but 12 months from now assuming gold heads where I think it will head and the compnay continues to perform on an operational level the NCM share price could easily be double the current discounted price. AS the Aud falls it both improves the NCM cash cost position and also makes it a more viable takeover candidate to a major North AMerican miner.