$43.71 to now - what has changed??, page-2

Hi GM
Certainly agree with those fundamentals but would say since the high the following negative factors have occurred, personally i think the risk has been overpriced and have attempted a few long side trades but majority rules at present and majority is selling down

Risk premium for oil has been dramatic on egypt, kaddaffi and now bahrain, this premium has not eased and 20 pc increase in spot in a month will reduce ncm margins in the short term

Xjo has fallen heavily from over 4900 resulting in ongoing margin calls

Fx markets have been suffering wild swings causing many os investors to sell due reduce fx losses

Ozzie government going alone with a carbon tax

I can only express an opinion from a short term point of view( long term investors will have a different view ) but i think there is still risk for ncm due to the markets knee jerk reactions due to many external events in the short term...... And this morning we have a no fly zone in lybia approved spiking oil,,,...........

On a positve side id add to your analysis and say, earnings up148pc, balance sheet remains very strong with little to no gearing and merger intergration remains on track and ahead of budget