Starting this thread to break down the numbers behind Cassius Mining’s (CMD) high-stakes $443 million arbitration and explore potential compensation per share in different outcomes — including funded, unfunded, and gold-price-adjusted scenarios.
Key Figures:
- Claim Amount: $443 million AUD
- Shares on Issue: ~677 million
- Base Case Compensation per Share (Gross):
$443M / 677M = ~$0.65/share
With Litigation Funder – 25% Cut:
Scenario A – Full $443M Win
- Net to CMD: ~$332.25M
- Per share: ~$0.49
Scenario B – $300M Award
- Net to CMD: $225M
- Per share: ~$0.33
Scenario C – $200M Award
- Net to CMD: $150M
- Per share: ~$0.22
Settlement Scenarios –
No Litigation Funder Involved
If CMD settles before bringing on a funder, they retain the full amount:
Scenario D – $300M Settlement (Unfunded)
- Per share: $300M / 677M = ~$0.44
Scenario E – $200M Settlement (Unfunded)
- Per share: $200M / 677M = ~$0.30
Even a moderate unfunded settlement delivers material upside to current pricing.
What If the Claim Increases? (Gold Price Effect)
When the claim was filed, gold was ~US$2,300/oz. Now it’s near US$3,300/oz, a ~43% increase. If damages are tied to lost production value, CMD could argue for more.
Adjusted Hypothetical Claim: $443M x 1.43 = ~$633.5M
Scenario F – $633.5M Award, 25% to Funder
- Net to CMD: ~$475M
- Per share: ~$0.70
This thread will track progress, refine valuations, and unpack new developments as they emerge.
Disclaimer: As with all litigation plays, outcomes are not guaranteed. DYOR. Investors should be aware of the risks and factor them into any decision-making.
Starting this thread to break down the numbers behind Cassius...
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