I love your input Protagonist. There's definitely more balanced information with you in this forum. my response is:
PM pricing is extremely hard to forecast for many reasons including price manipulation. I am sure you already agree with this. My use of “arguably” is very weaselly I agree and it was meant with this intent. I personally wouldn’t be surprised to see gold fall to $1450 USD in the next 12months. The upside to this is that I have conviction that gold and PMs will rise following market consensus of a global recession. I am not entirely convinced that inflation will directly trigger a rise in PM prices however. In fact the opposite is suggested by the below chart.
My thesis and expected sequence of events is:
- High inflation now will cause central bankers to taper and increase interest rates (obviously)
- This encourages movement away from gold and into the bond market and hence PM prices fall
- the rising interest rates reduce easy credit and the stock market falls
- consensus of a global recession is reached by market
- people run scared from stocks and into bonds and PMs
- PM prices go slightly higher
- CPI falls
- the central banks then begin decreasing interest rates and printing money
- bonds are not attractive and people pile into gold and PMs
- PM prices explode
- Easy money then floods the stock market
- PM prices crash
- cycle is repeated a few more times until we implode into socialist fascist surveillance state and banana republic (i.e. future USA)
- PM prices increase 1000000% and we begin bartering shoes, coins and children for sustenance
- new free market nation is born and the cycles repeat themselves
I believe step 10 times very well with development and production of Sorby Hills. What’s that? Maybe 3 years away?
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Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
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Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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4 | 381644 | 10.0¢ |
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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4 | 381644 | 0.100 |
1 | 5104 | 0.096 |
1 | 10526 | 0.095 |
1 | 10500 | 0.092 |
1 | 10000 | 0.091 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.110 | 32424 | 1 |
0.115 | 325000 | 2 |
0.120 | 445737 | 4 |
0.125 | 70000 | 2 |
0.130 | 259523 | 2 |
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