AME 8.57% 3.8¢ alto metals limited

This is not financial advise. Please do your own research. Hope...

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    This is not financial advise. Please do your own research. Hope the below helps existing and future shareholders. Forgive me for the typos.

    1. There is lower risk at lower price. Alto Metals is currently in a 2.5 year SP low.

    2. Gold junior stocks are in a cyclical low and the market is in a bear market. These are two macro economic troughs cumulated into a once a multi decade buying opportunity. If you aren’t buying now then when will you ever buy?

    3. We are at 1:00 in the commodity cycle & corporate behaviour clock (see image below). There is only growing momentum from here. More buyers, more TO interest, more capital, more drilling, more catalysts…

    4. WA is a tier one mining jurisdiction with a supportive community and state government.

    5. The site is located within in a historic mining town Sandstone and has a low risk social license.

    6. Alto Metals is small cap and the share price is volatile. Troughs and peaks are large and can multi bag. We are in bargain low and significantly below intrinsic value and other metrics.

    7. Take advantage of emotional retail investors exiting the stock. Buy their bargain shares. The arithmetic and common sense investing fundamentals is your tailwind here. Be greedy when others a fearful.

    8. The salary of the CEO Mr Bowles is not obtuse is in the order of around $300k. Shareholder cash is respected.

    9. The Alto Metals office is modest and located in West Perth. Shareholder cash is respected.

    10. 80m @ 1.6g/t from 21m

    11. 635koz @ 1.6g/t OPEN resource. Countless targets to be drilled down plunge, laterally and undercover. Blue sky resource growth at high grades.

    12. There have been 3 attempted takeovers for Alto Metals and there will be more. MDI offer dated 1/3/2019. Shandong Goldsea Pty Ltd offer dated 24/2/2020. Hanbrok Pty Ltd offer dated 22/5/2020

    13. Future takeovers are the best marketing agent for a junior. This catalyst and likely future event will bring new shareholders to the registry but also potentially build a pathway for us to multi bag our shares if we accept the offer.

    14. Charting technical suggest the Alto Metals SP has bottomed out. The current market cap is $38mil. It cannot possibly go any lower than $30mil. There is limited downside. Blue sky upside

    15. If the market cap goes below $30mil then this falls into the price basket of failed life style companies and shells. Rejoice as you can buy even more shares! Alto Metals does not belong in the category of <$30mil.

    16. Capital raising triggers bottoming of SP. $3mil has been raised at $0.065 recently. The market SP is momentarily hunting a near $.065 bottom. This is a short term bargain buying opportunity. Buy now.

    17. There are no skeletons in the closet with the sandstone project. The sandstone project is a simple story. It’s a shallow under cover prospect with previously exploited shallow oxide resources mined through open pit. Former operators did not develop processing infrastructure to mine the deeper harder sulphide gold bearing rock and nor did the explore for it. The geological models and orientation of ore was misjudged. Shallow oxide resources remained undiscovered. And only a fraction of the area was drilled below 100m. Alto Metals has come in with modern exploration techniques and intellectual capital to unlock the full potential of Sandstone.

    18. The Alto Metals team has the relevant capabilities to do the job right and preserve shareholder capital.

    19. Micro trumps macro. Alto Metals and the Sandstone project will succeed regardless of macroeconomic conditions.

    20. The sandstone project was purchased at a measly price of $0.5mil, some shares and 2% royalty to vendor/s. This is very reasonable.

    21. Since the purchase of the project only $20.9mil has been raised for drilling! (refer to CR chart below). The story only truly began in June 2019 with a $2.6mil CR. Everything before then has been “reconnaissance” and target identification. The next Mineral resource update is due March 2023. Will this be 800koz? 1mil oz? whatever this is its enough to spark the next catalyst which is scoping study!

    22. There is now clear momentum to chase open resources.

    23. Capital is not cheap at present and hence only the $3.3mil raise recently. To conserve and respect shareholder cash only 1 drill rig is currently turning for Alto Metals. With 1 drill rig turning the high grade hits and resource expansion news will just keep on dripping in.

    24. CEO Mathew Bowel’s presentations and interviews suggest he is very capable of selling the story and professionally communicating to shareholders.

    25. Sandstone is not held at a pedestal and used as crutch by Alto Metals. Management are lively characters that are actively developing value for the business and project.

    26. Gold exploration is an exciting business that will bring in band wagon retail once we move out from the cyclical low (very soon).

    27. High inflation and recession (stagflation) historically triggers a bull market in precious metals. Most of the western world is in a cyclical decline with crippling green energy and socialist policies. Long term debt cycle declines (typically 100 years) increase demand for precious metals. Macroeconomics is you 100% your tailwind here when investing in gold juniors.

    28. The board appear to communicate extremely well with shareholders and are quiet transparent.

    29. The Alto Metals objective has always been to identity a 1moz resource first and then pursue mine development. This is followed by further multi million oz discoveries. Then have never deviated from this objective and are head strong. There is definitive optimism and a set plan that management is grinding away at.

    30. The project is a brownfield and any environmental hurdles are negligible. The project is fully endorsed by the community and state government.

    31. Mills and furnaces are hungry. Regional mid tier gold producers (West gold, Ramelius, Gold Fields, St Barbara etc) within 200km of the site will be seeking new ounces. They will be knocking on Alto Metals door.

    32. The Sandstone project has negligible historical drilling below 100m and into fresher sulphide rock. Alto Metals is not fooling shareholders by redrilling old resources.

    33. The project has access to roads, power, gravel airstrip, potable water, gold mills and a quality workforce.

    34. Go big or go home. Alto Metals is big. Big potential for economical multi oz gold resources.

    35. The lasonde curve model is on our side (see chart below). We have not hit the big 1moz discovery. When we do, there is multi bag potential.

    36. There are no metallurgical issues. This is not a refractory gold resource. Recoveries are consistently above 90%

    37. Management have skin in the game. About 20% shares on issue are owned by the board (i.e. Terry)

    38. 570mil shares on issue may suggest a formerly loose capital structure but this no longer applies. Top 20 holders own 69.7% of shares on issue. With around 20% owned by the board. There are only 7.5mil options and 6.5mil performance rights! This is a tight capital structure. The top 20 are likely to be illiquid and hence Alto Metals is ready to pop and multi bag.

    39. West Gold own 14.6% of shares on issue and are likely to proceed with takeover offer eventually

    40. The project is not located on a restive pastoral property or any other inhibiting industry.

    41. The Sandstone project shows economic potential for both bulk tonnage open operations as well as high grade underground mining of veins.

    42. Western Australia is ranked as the most attractive mining jurisdiction worldwide by the Fraser Institute (2022)

    43. The 2.5 year share price low is not due to any change in the companies intrinsic value. It is purely market sentiment and fear. Fear from the stagnation of the gold price and inflation. The story is intact and untainted. The project has even more value now but is yet cheaper.

    44. Inflation does not significantly impact junior explores. There are no risks of cost overruns, increasing labour costs or material supply issues. A junior explorer runs on intellectual capital and the turn of a drill rig. It’s a good time to buy into exploration plays.

    45. Development of a new gold mine at Sandstone is a question of when and not if its going to happen.

    46. Simple project, story and business. This does not require a team of analysts and engineers to decipher. The gates are open for new shareholders to join the register.

    47. At a current market cap of $37.7mil Atlo Metals has a real multi bag potential.
 
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3.8¢
Change
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Mkt cap ! $27.41M
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Last trade - 16.10pm 10/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
Last
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