Hi 8tey,
Looking at very low volumes since march, one can only ask if retail shareholders has any influence on the share price.
I keep coming back to the first rerate movement, on september 9 2020.
120 millions shares changed hand that day on absolutely no news.
The annual report was published a week before (August 31) but had nothing new in it. The most recent update was published at the begining of august, nearly four weeks before the september rerates.
This rerate started a long period of high volume days, until march 2021 were ten millions volume days desapeared.
From there, a slow drop occured with often ridiculous volumes.
From that pattern, we can conclude that retail shareholders do - or don't do - has no real effect on the share price. At least, it is what I think.
Imo, what we are seeing is better explained by what we could call the fixed price theory.
We can imagine that 4DS and WDC had already determined a price, or more probably a price range.
- The minimum price could be 300/400 millions USD
- The higher price could be above 1,5 billion.
We could also imagine (as we have nothing else to do) that the final price will ultimateley depend on certain technical thresholds beeing reached.
For example if the the 4DS cell could be produced at 20 nanometer node, without using EUV, the price could reach $ 1 billion.
Imo, this type of calculation could be rather straightforward as our partners have already all thoses calculations in mind for their own ReRam project.
From this point of view, the share price could be dependant on a threshold effect.
For that scenario to work, we must adopt the "global price" concept.
Ie, the 4DS price will be a fraction of the global price the buyer will pay to bring the technology to market and to reach breakeven .
If for example, the buyer only need to spend 10 billions to bring the technology to market a a price equal to 3D NAND, we can easily imagine that the 4DS price could be above 1 billion or 10% of the golbal price.
But If the buyer need to pay above $ 25 billions (the cost of the last SK Hynix Fab) because to produce the 4DS cells at an economical volume and price, an extensive use of EUV equipment will be needed, then the price paid for the technology will be less.
We can suppose that for each production path one or more technical threshold could be defined.
For example, if the cell could be produced at low cost using Micron multipatterning immersion techniques, that would set the price of the technology at a certain level.
What I'm affraid of is the need of EUV.
If we absolutelutely need EUV, the company will not be sold at a very high price, imo.
Because EUV is very expensive.
There are less than one hundred EUV equipment in the world.
And only one producer : ASML (a Netherland company).
If you want to buy one today, you will have to wait two years and pay between 90 and 120 millions dollars (180 tons dispatched in 40 containers).
EUV is considered one of the the most complexe machinery ever built by men.
https://samsungsemiconductor-us.com/euv/index.htmlhttps://semiengineering.com/knowledge_centers/manufacturing/lithography/euv/How EUV Works
Key to an EUV system is the source. Based on a laser-produced-plasma (LPP) technology, the EUV source consists of several parts, including a carbon dioxide (CO²) laser. The laser, which provides power for the source, is located under the fab floor in the sub-fab.
The laser consists of two parts—a seed laser (pre-pulse and main pulse) and a power amplifier. Today’s EUV sources use a 20-kilowatt laser.
The actual EUV source is situated on the fab floor. Attached to the EUV scanner, the source consists of a droplet generator, collector and a vacuum chamber. In EUV, the process takes place in a vacuum environment, because nearly everything absorbs EUV light.
The droplet generator is a small vessel. In operation, tin is loaded into the droplet generator and then heated. At that point, a train of tiny tin droplets flow out from the droplet generator, through a filter and into the vacuum chamber in the source. The droplets are 25 microns in diameter and are falling at a rate of 50,000 times a second.
In the vessel, there is a camera. A droplet passes a certain position in the chamber. Then, the camera tells the seed laser in the sub-fab to fire a laser pulse into the main vacuum chamber. This is called the pre-pulse.
Then comes the really hard part. The pre-pulse laser hits the spherical tin droplet and turns it into a pancake-like shape. Then the laser unit fires again, representing the main pulse. The main pulse hits the pancake-like tin droplet and vaporizes it.
At that point, the tin vapor becomes plasma. The plasma, in turn, emits EUV light at 13.5nm wavelengths.
The goal is to hit a droplet with precision. This determines how much of the laser power gets turned into EUV light, which is referred to as conversion efficiency (CE).
Meanwhile, once the EUV light is generated, the photons hit a multi-layer mirror called the collector. The light bounces off the collector and travels through an intermediate focus unit into the scanner.
In the scanner, the light bounces off a complex scheme of 10 surfaces or multi-layer mirrors. First, the light goes through a programmable illuminator. This forms a pupil shape to illuminate the right amount of light for the EUV mask.
Then, EUV light hits the mask, which is also reflective. It bounces off six multi-layer mirrors in the projection optics. Finally, the light hits the wafer at an angle of 6%. Each multi-layer mirror reflects about 70% of the light. Based on various calculations, the EUV scanner itself has a transmission rate of only 4%.
The light then hits the photoresist on the wafer.
_________
I don't know if Sandisk and Kioxia Use EUV now.
In 2013, Sandisk CEO Sanjay Merothra, said that they will have a look at it in 2024 when the transition from 3D NAND to Reram will start (it was Sandisk filamentary Reram then).
From their most recent comments Micron (now headed by S. Merothra) said that they are confident they can reach competitive cost for both NAND and DRAM without EUV, using only immersion multi-patterning.
But for filamentary Reram, it seems that EUV is a must to control Impact of Line Edge Roughness on ReRAM Uniformity and Scaling
Line Edge Roughness (LER) for exemple.
LER can introduce > 10% variability when scalling down the size of the cell.
And smaller the size, higher the number of cells per die and lower the cost. But to reach such a small size you will need a very sharp tool for etching so as to avoid LER.
Impact of Line Edge Roughness on ReRAM Uniformity and Scaling Impact of Line Edge Roughness on ReRAM Uniformity and ScalingI didn't find any article that says that the downsizing of 4DS Cell will need EUV.If it doesn't, it will be agreat advantage to the technology compared to other SCM.
That said, a potential buyer will whant to produce 4DS memories at the best possible cost and that would probably means : having a clear path to go under 10 nm (among other possible features that could reduce the production costs).
So, to make it short :
- Higher price for 4DS => lower cost to produce
- Lower cost to produce => certain technical thresholds must be reached at Imec (and hopefully in Sandisk Labs)
- For each technical threshold an encrease in the 4DS price could be calculated, if we agree with the global price idea.
One can imagine that search for the best of the best way to produce the memory at low cost must end at some point.
If this end point is determined by the amount of cash that 4DS could throw at it, then this story will come to an end in the next three months.
We will then know if we are bought for AU$ 0,35 - 0,45 a share or much more than that.
Or if we take the patent selling path.
- No financial advice -
PS -
As for the fact that 4DS is never mentionned anywhere, I believe it is due to the fact that :
1- Non filamentary ReRam is not well known - it's considered a marginal thing.
2 - 4DS is seen to "belong" to Western Digital (even if WDC had never said a word about 4DS).
You don't interfere in other's internal business.
Specialy if you have a multi billions SCM research program of your own (Intel, Samsung, TSMC, SK Hynix...).
