4DS 0.00% 8.3¢ 4ds memory limited

4DS - Anything but Charting, page-19677

  1. 237 Posts.
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    I honestly believe the news isn't anywhere near as bad as the market has treated it, although I am not surprised by the result.

    Yes, we have more delays which isn't ideal and that should be expected to weigh on the share price. Yes, they are terrible at formulating announcements and their approach to this one was very strange to say the least, losing some long term holders in the process and bringing the boards credibility into question.

    However, they have stated that they have finished working the cells and now can focus on the MB array (Re: Guido quote August 21 announcement). Now they need to make a memory stack etch mask change and further etch process optimisations in order to get the best result, to suggest it doesn't work at all is a huge stretch in my opinion.

    Furthermore, everyone has had a fit over 'no established SCM market', but the reality is exactly that, there is no established SCM market, they are targeting next-gen in a space that is currently unoccupied and desperately calling out for a and/or multiple solutions. So the market hasn't defined the balance it wants and quantifying the trade offs between speed, endurance, retention is what van den Hoek is there to do (from a data set perspective). This confirms that anyone talking about DRAM killer is smoking a crack pipe, the entire industry says give up on that pipe dream so the least researched person would quickly understand it is not what 4DS have.

    The board clearly has terrible bedside manner towards its shareholders, especially given they told us it would happen on time on budget 2019, then they said it would happen this year with or without a MB chip.

    My biggest concern now is this - "The start of the Third Platform Lot is now expected to occurin early 2022 and will be preceded by a memory stack etch mask change and further etch process optimization toresolve the technical issues that resulted in the partial failure of the Second Platform Lot as announced on 17August 2021. Performing this memory stack etch optimization will result in a three month delay of our time line."

    You have not given us a time line, you promised on-time, on-budget 2019, then it blurred (with the aid of covid) into a large cap raise and MB chip and/or transaction 2021. A three month delay would push MB chip and/or transaction into Q1 2022, whereas what they have actually said is don't expect a MB chip until at least July 2022. This is 7 months at best, then they need to negotiate, so transaction in 2022 is best case scenario right now. Furthermore, the etch mask change is to resolve partial failure of 2nd platform lot announced in August, so was it a "technical issue has quickly been identified during detailed analysis and is resolvablegoing forward with no delays to current timelines" or was it actually a 7 month delay? Clearly it was the latter, clearly their credibility is rightfully in tatters and it begs the question, can we believe anything they say now, or is it all hot air?


 
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