For most of the last 12 months the SP has traded above 16c, with peaks above 20c in the lead up to the release of results for each run with imec. Now, I agree there was speculation the PL2 may have included a megabit chip and that the company should have moved to quash this rumour at that time. However, it means there was always going to be another run with imec to produce the megabit test chip.
Perhaps confirmation the next run will have a test chip is a bullish sign from imec, in that they are almost certain it will work. Perhaps, it is a Hail Mary from 4DS. Certainly, a point of discussion for the AGM. Either way, at some point in less than 12 months 4DS will be about to release the results of a 1-megabit test chip. The share price will have a speculative run-up beforehand. Don’t forget, we now know it will be up to 10x faster than was expected from PL2.
I also put hash’s IP sale of $100-150m idea in perspective. This outcome would be the result of failure, not success. How often do you get an investment opportunity where you can profit from failure? If you were on the BOD and had successfully developed the 1-megabit chip and someone came and offered you $150m to buy the IP you’d be giving them your best Ray Kerrigan. The market says it would be worth significantly more, just looking at other companies yet to develop commercial revenue streams. In this position, with validated tech, the BOD would have no other option but to proceed with commercialisation. You could do this through licencing or becoming a fabless manufacturer without taking on unreasonable levels of risk or shareholder dilution.
However, the BOD needs to acknowledge that shareholder communication is not exactly a strong point and take immediate action to address this as this is the major issue pushing the share price down.
