Hi Chirofalls,When trying to forcast the next leg up, it might...

Hi Chirofalls,

When trying to forcast the next leg up, it might be interesting to have a look at the options calendar.

We can see in the last Annual Report that there are 32 millions otions at 0,042 that will expire in 8 month.




The recent change in the company security trading policy seems to indicate that they want to allow people to exercise massively in the next months.

But this change could also just be an effort to put things in order.

With no change in the policy, the 20% limit by quarter would still apply, and that means that - with 3 quarters left to october 2022 - arround 13 millions will expires in october without being exercised
(Guido Arnout alone will lose 5,8 millions options).

It they didn't change the policy, it would have mean that they just dont mind about their shares and options.
A very sinister signal for the company.

So, OK, they had to change the security trading policy even if nobody wants to exercise his options, and just to avoid sending a bad signal to the informed market.

But the fact remain that 32 millions options will expire in october 27.

If all are exercised, the various holders will have to pay $ 1,344,000.
Guido alone will have to pay $ 588,000.

If , as I think none of the holders has the money for that, they will have to exercise, sell and pay the company later (It seems that the 4DS board allow that and it is a common practice).

But - and here is my point - if they are forced to sell to pay back the exercise price, this will put a cap on the share price, even if the sellings takes place million by million during 8 months.

The longer they take to exercise, the more the selling will be concentrated on a short period of time and the more the share price will dive as a consequence as options' selling.


So, I think that the options calendar could tells us 2 things :

1 - If some options holders want to exercise, they need to start in the comming weeks. If the price dont dive after that => leg up granted (imo).

2 - if no holder decide to exercise in the next few weeks, the only hope will be a takeover arround October 2021
=> leg up in comming weeks would be less probable (imo)










bnbh