I like what you're doing here, but I would point out that...

I like what you're doing here, but I would point out that there's much more to investment decisions than a balance of probabilities for price growth/potential sale. In a bounding market, investor sentiments are more likely to view potential losses in a context of growth, where high risk markets (this is categorically a high risk market, maybe the highest risk market in a decade) will be focusing on stopping losses. That's where Tesla's inexorable rise was such a sign of the times - people figured 'well, maybe I'll lose, but so many people are winning big, maybe I'll win big too', as part of that astronomical increase in tech stocks from 2012-2019. Now people are scared that every ship is a leaky ship and cash is king (a poor decision, honestly, with inflation what it is). I think the current share price is maximally affected by this sentiment.

This isn't to say you are in any way wrong! Valuing things is an insane game, there's no intrinsic value here (even the liquidation price would fluctuate insanely). However, what we can say is that the market sentiment behind the current share price is the absolute worst it has been since march 2020. The 'rational' behind the rational market in this case is tethered to a way stronger than normal current of sentiment.

While there's no way to know, I pretty strongly suspect that the price would currently be 16-20c were the world not at war, or at least 12c if China weren't... doing that thing it does. It's not even zero covid at this point, it's just 'holding pattern for landing at calamity airport'. It's all just fun games, though, because we don't know the probability of the thing working or not, only what a very nervous market sees as the risk appetite for it not working. After that, we don't know which buyers would show up or how much cash they carry. I definitely agree, though, that having a very low valuation for liquidation is smart perspective.