The 61 cent valuation is for a 10% chance at 10% of the market and then they use a 15% pa discount rate and only sum 4 years of figures!
On the flip side it looks like it's a revenue calc.
For my money, a 30% chance of success, 10% penetration and a 10 year NPV, but profitability of 30% gives a valuation closer to $2 per share
4DS - Anything but Charting, page-29889
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