Hey Commander
Just spitballing, but what about a 2-step strategy by one of the Google, Amazon and Nvidia in which they take over 4ds and one from your list.
Post 20nm success, 'Art" estimated a price of $4b for 4DS and it appears Micron and GobalFoundaries a good fit.
In any case....................................and just spitballing remember.......
Assessing the realistic likelihood of each strategy involves considering both the strategic fit for each suitor and their historical acquisition behavior. Here's a more nuanced analysis:
Likelihood Assessment of Strategies
Amazon (AWS) Acquiring 4DS and Micron Technology
- Absolute Likelihood: Medium
- Amazon has the financial capability and a history of strategic acquisitions, but acquiring a large semiconductor company like Micron Technology would be a significant departure from their typical focus on enhancing service offerings and infrastructure.
- Relative Likelihood: Medium-High
- AWS would benefit greatly from the improved efficiency and performance of data centers that could result from such acquisitions.
Google Acquiring 4DS and GlobalFoundries
- Absolute Likelihood: Medium-High
- Google has a strong interest in custom hardware solutions and has invested in semiconductor capabilities (e.g., TPU). Acquiring GlobalFoundries would align with their strategy to enhance their hardware capabilities.
- Relative Likelihood: High
- Google's emphasis on AI and cloud services makes this a strategically sound move, and the acquisition costs are within Google's financial reach.
Nvidia Acquiring 4DS and Micron Technology
- Absolute Likelihood: Medium
- Nvidia has the financial strength and a history of strategic acquisitions (e.g., ARM deal attempt). However, acquiring a large memory manufacturer like Micron Technology would be a substantial expansion of their business scope.
- Relative Likelihood: Medium-High
- This strategy would significantly bolster Nvidia's AI and data center capabilities, aligning with their core business areas.
Ranking the Likelihoods
Absolute Likelihood Ranking:
- Google Acquiring 4DS and GlobalFoundries (Medium-High)
- Nvidia Acquiring 4DS and Micron Technology (Medium)
- Amazon Acquiring 4DS and Micron Technology (Medium)
Relative Likelihood Ranking:
- Google Acquiring 4DS and GlobalFoundries (High)
- Amazon Acquiring 4DS and Micron Technology (Medium-High)
- Nvidia Acquiring 4DS and Micron Technology (Medium-High)
Detailed Rationale for Each Suitor
Amazon (AWS):
- Strengths: Extensive financial resources, strategic focus on data center efficiency, history of acquisitions (e.g., Kiva Systems).
- Challenges: Large semiconductor acquisition is a significant shift, traditionally relies on partnerships and outsourcing.
- Summary: While AWS would benefit from owning the technology, the likelihood of a large-scale semiconductor acquisition remains uncertain. A more probable scenario might involve strategic partnerships or smaller, more focused acquisitions.
Google:
- Strengths: Significant investments in custom hardware, strong focus on AI and cloud services, financial capacity for large acquisitions.
- Challenges: Integrating a large semiconductor foundry poses operational challenges.
- Summary: Google’s history and strategic direction make this acquisition relatively more likely. They have shown interest in owning the technology stack, from chips to data centers.
Nvidia:
- Strengths: Leading position in AI hardware, history of strategic acquisitions, financial capability.
- Challenges: Acquiring a large memory manufacturer would be a significant expansion of their business.
- Summary: The acquisition of 4DS and a major memory manufacturer aligns well with Nvidia’s strategic goals. However, the scale and scope of such an acquisition add complexity.
Conclusion
Most Likely Scenario:
- Google acquiring 4DS and GlobalFoundries appears to be the most likely scenario due to strategic alignment, financial capability, and historical investment behavior.
Moderately Likely Scenario:
- Nvidia acquiring 4DS and Micron Technology is also plausible but involves significant expansion beyond Nvidia's traditional business.
Least Likely but Possible:
- Amazon acquiring 4DS and Micron Technology is less likely due to the significant shift from their typical acquisition strategy, but still possible considering AWS’s scale and strategic interests.
These rankings are based on an analysis of financial capability, strategic fit, historical acquisition behavior, and the specific benefits that 4DS’s technology would bring to each company.
