It is natural for all of us to want to 'estimate' as best we can...

It is natural for all of us to want to 'estimate' as best we can the value of the 'successful product' and therefore to potential return on our investment. After all we all need this before we can be confident about our risk v reward calculation. I commend you for the work you have put in to your observations and guesstimates, BUT a lot of us here have been around long enough to live through many 'pick a number' sessions where we try and guess the value of our IP. I've been guilty of this as well. Most of us have reached the logical conclusion that it is pure folly to try and guess a value and you cannot make certain assumptions...... for some of the following reasons : (obviously not a complete list).

1. We don't have a clue about the working specifications at 20nm (only theoretical) ie, speed, endurance, retention, write and read accuracy.

2. We don't know how easily it can be reproduced ie. we don't know the yield or the per bit cost.

3. We don't know yet the potential market penetration of a successful product in terms of what applications it can be utilised in. If mass adoption is
possible globally then the runway for return on investment to a potential buyer is very short but the inverse is also true. This will have a bearing upon
what someone is prepared to pay for it up front.

4. If our tech is as good as what has been suggested, there is likely to be many potential buyers from both inside and outside the tech industry.
In this case there would be an auction with the highest bidder taking the prize. ........ a property market on steroids. Because of point (3) above
in particular, will determine the level of desperation to control the technology and hence the price that buyers will be prepared to pay. This could be
be an absurd amount of money. Remember companies like Samsung spend approximately US$20 billion /year on R&D alone. Nvidia market cap is
currently US$3.46 trillion ( a virtual bottomless vault of financial leverage ). There are many companies where their very survival might depend on
having some piece of the action. You have to remember there are many companies out there that are
that are looking to re-invent themselves eg Intel , trying to regain those glory days. This could potentially turn the industry on its head.


Market share is King and no-one can afford a Kodak moment this could only benefit us.

If our tech memory tech is successfully produced at 20nm we will know much more detail about the specifications .....BUT we will still have no idea about value. At the end of the day it is only worth what buyers are prepared to pay for it /.... what they can afford !!!! After-all the winning bid only has to be higher than the second highest bid.

GLTAH.