You've discounted the possibility that many of us have traded...

You've discounted the possibility that many of us have traded this stock for good profit all along the way and are now playing with the house's money (as the saying goes). Staying aware of the plays on hand can amount to multiple opportunities. Protecting your capital can fit in fine alongside maintaining a concurrent bet on an asymmetric play. I agree that belief alone doesn't make for good investing but the choices aren't always that binary. Nothing wrong with taking money off the table for profit and then letting the rest ride.

DYOR GLTA