4DS Chart for Long Term Holders, page-1445

Hi Chirofalls.

Bull sentiment certainly,

But imo, not for a ten bagger.

They showed the door to their technical team.

So now, imagine that there is another problem. Who will solve it ?

Contractors ?

OK, Imec is interested in the result (5 million Euros capped royalties on licence income). So, maybe they will do the job and solve any new problem.

WvdH and GA have knowledge to make strategical choices, but they don't know the grass root level intricacies of what is being done at imec.

You must be there or on daily contact with the Imec team to understand it.
That was Desu and Van Buskirk job.

What I want to say is either they have a very very big confidence in imec engineers in charge of the project, or what work remains to be done at Imec presents very low risk.

Looking at their recent corporate decisions (hiring KH and disbanding the technical team), I think the second hypothesis is true : very low technical risk going forward.

If we agree with that, the only problem is to find someone who want to buy the technology.

They must find this buyer fast because they have some cash, but not that much.
8 months just with salaries and rents ?
( money flow to imec will stop in july)

Thats end of this year.

Maybe more if they can start a rerate on market lots of people will exercise their options and they get enough money to last 3 more months ?


In my opinion KH's biggest ennemy is time.

He must go fast if he doesn't want to be cornered in december with little or no money to go on.

But going fast could very well means a low or only medium price. Ie : Max = 550 million USD.

550 MUSD means a dilluted share price of 0,499 AUD at current exchange rate.
Less 41 million AUD of Sell bus pool, that's 0,472 AUD/Share.

What will be KH's gain at this selling price ?

- Part of the bonus pool 30% = 12.53 million AUD
- capital gain on share selling after exercising = (0,472-0,064) x 30 millions = 12.2 millio AUD

Total = 24.77 millions AUD or 17,5 million USD before tax.

Will he consider this enough ?
Will he try to go for the big prize by refusing the first offers ?
Can this game last longer, with another CR based only on the expectation of a better price ?

Imo, all will depend on what level the share price reach, between now and July.

If we are arround 0,30 in july, the board could decide to go for a better price and prepare to fight until in 2023.

The technology will be well known in the industry if KH is doing what we expect him to do.
And the context for 4ds could be totally different.

It's up to each shareholder to decide.

For me the best deal remain a selling at 0,35 paid in shares of the buying company.
=> derisked at 0,35 and further upside still possible as shareholder of the buying company ( + saving on capital gain tax).

Imo, they have a minimum deal already in the bag.
That's why they are taking risks.

If the world end (one more time) in the newt few weeks, There will be blood in the streets and some people will buy at bargain price.

History shows that wars always lost against trading and making money.

In 1940, the Paris stock exchange was still oppen and trading as the german army entered Paris suburbs.
And during World War I many factories miraculously avoided shelling even as the front passed them in one sens and another.

Money run the world, even in war time.


No financial advice.