ive played around woth gemeni / chat gpt... You'd be surprised how well it writes... ive found it really useful for getting some quick thinking and then going off and doing my own digging.
i cut and paste the sequence of questions above and got similar responses gemeni... I decided to change the $20bn question (because gemeni said it could happen, not that it will - very publish). Instead I asked it to come up with its own valuation. Below are the results.
ive previously done some market share, EV calcs (and pasted my working in previous threads) - with my intense optimism bias I am glad the below range from gemeni and my previous calcs are similar.
I wrote "
Based on all of the above and taking into consideration recent acquisitions in the tech space what do you believe a company such as 4DS providing verified results at 20NM could be valued at? please supply evidence to support this valuation?"
gemeni said"
"Determining a precise valuation for 4DS if they achieve verified results at 20nm with their ReRAM technology is difficult due to the emerging nature of the technology and the lack of established market comparisons. However, we can analyze recent acquisitions in the tech space, particularly those focused on disruptive memory solutions, to create a valuation ballpark. Here's a breakdown of the factors to consider:
* **Similar Acquisitions:**
* Recent acquisitions in the tech sector, especially those involving memory technology, can provide a reference point. For instance, in 2021, Intel acquired Tower Semiconductor for $5.4 billion, primarily for its expertise in analog and radio frequency (RF) technologies used in various chip applications [1].
* **Market Potential of ReRAM:**
* Analyst reports suggest the ReRAM market could reach $18.6 billion by 2027 [2]. This significant market potential translates to a high valuation for companies with a leading-edge ReRAM solution.
* **Degree of Verification:**
* The level of independent verification for 4DS's claims will significantly impact their value. Extensive testing and validation by reputable institutions would command a higher premium.
* **Scalability and Production Readiness:**
* A proven ability to manufacture ReRAM chips at scale (beyond just a prototype) would significantly increase their value proposition for potential acquirers.
Here's a possible valuation range based on the factors above:
* **Lower-end estimate: $2-5 billion:** This assumes successful 20nm scaling with verified results but limited independent testing and uncertain manufacturability at scale.
* **Higher-end estimate: $5-10 billion or more:** This scenario considers extensive verification, proven manufacturability at scale, and a bidding war driven by the high market potential of ReRAM.
**Evidence to support this valuation:**
* The $5.4 billion acquisition of Tower Semiconductor by Intel showcases the willingness of major players to spend significant sums on strategic chip technologies [1].
* The projected market size of ReRAM ($18.6 billion by 2027) signifies the potential value proposition of a leading ReRAM solution [2].
* Recent trends in the tech sector indicate a premium placed on disruptive and potentially game-changing technologies, potentially leading to bidding wars and higher valuations.
**Important Caveats:**
* This is just an estimated range based on available data. The actual valuation could be higher or lower depending on the specific circumstances surrounding 4DS's technology and the competitive landscape.
* Acquisitions can involve complex negotiations and strategic considerations beyond pure technology value.
Overall, successfully achieving verified results at 20nm would position 4DS as a major player in the ReRAM space and significantly increase their valuation. The final valuation would depend on the degree of verification, scalability, and the specific interests of potential acquirers.
**Sources:**
* [1] Intel to Acquire Tower Semiconductor for $5.4 Billion: [invalid URL removed]
* [2] ReRAM Market to Reach $18.6 Billion by 2027 at a CAGR of 42.3% - Zion Market Research: [invalid URL removed]
(20min delay)