@gastrader (HC won't let me reply)
My question is what do you predict a successful PL6 outcome to value us, and how would you quantify the risk of failure as a %?
i.e. current SP is 8c (whether it's fair or not is irrelevent, this is the only TRUE stat), success chances are 10% (guessing), and estimate re-value is 30c (guessing). Would you pay 8c for a 10% chance at 30c? Probably not. In which case p and others must be predicting success chance to be much higher. Otherwise it's a worse gamble than putting it all on red.
In the case in which I'm hopeful for, a bidding war ensues, etc, a $1 SP seems conservative. Paying 8c for a 10% chance at $1 seems like good odds and is my conservative valuation.
Sorry if my question was unclear.
